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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

2007 NFL -- Week 1 Recap

Before discussing Week 2's hardcore picks, let's take a look at how we did in Week 1:

Lame Picks: Joe Horn (1 reception, 14 receiving yards). Horn was awful. I underestimated the Falcons' ability to score. I also didn't predict that QB Joey Harrington would find 8 other receivers during the game, severely compromising Horn's ability to distinguish himself from the pack.

Softcore Picks: Daniel Graham (3 receptions, 24 receiving yards), and the Redskins Defense (13 points against, 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery). Both picks finished outside the top ten at their respective positions, but neither would have hurt you too badly on your fantasy team, especially given their low values.

Hardcore Picks: For future reference, these encompass top 10 picks at their respective positions--the type of player who puts you on par or ahead of your fantasy competitors at that position. And since these players are "below the radar," they give you a surprising boost to your team. And that leads us to:

#1 Picks: I wasn't planning on going higher than "Hardcore," but this week was special. I don't expect this to happen again, especially because I'm not advising you on who's going to finish #1 at their position, but rather who will surprise you with a great week. But Tony Romo (345 passing yards, 11 rushing yards, 4 passing TD's, 1 rushing TD) and LaMont Jordan (70 yards rushing, 9 receptions, 89 yards receiving, 1 rushing TD) finished #1--or inarguably tied for #1--at their respective positions. Basically, if you played Romo and Jordan this week, you could have thrown in Horn, Graham, and the Redskins defense, and you probably would have beaten most competitors.

It's interesting that Romo and Jordan were playing at home (home crowd + motivation to avenge last season's disappointments), but Horn and Graham were on the road, and were playing with brand new teams. I don't think the outcomes were coincidental; it will take Horn and Graham time to get acclimated to these new systems.

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