2007 NFL -- Week 3 Recap -- Back in the Groove

In case you're joining us mid-season, this blog aims to help you find the "surprises" each week. I won't recommend top-10 players at any position, but when a lower-ranked player finishes a week in the top 10 at his position, that's what makes him "hardcore."

Last Friday, Wade C. from Nashville asked me whether to play Ronnie Brown or LenDale White. I told him Brown was due. How did I know? Because the Miami Herald had just run a story where two Hall-of-Fame Dolphins running backs (Mercury Morris and Jim Kiick) were questioning Coach Cameron's decision to rein in Brown. At 0-2, Cameron needed to make some changes, and the most obvious one would be to turn Brown loose. Sure enough, Brown tied for 1st among running backs this week.

In Week 3 I gave you 3 softies (Josh McCown, Antwaan Randle-El, and the Raiders Defense) and 2 hardies (Adrian Peterson and Vernon Davis).

• McCown was on pace to do some damage against the weak Browns defense, but his injury brought out my humble side.
• The Raiders Defense actually finished in the top 10 using SportingNews Fantasy scoring, which only counts "points against" when they come against your defense (and not on special teams, such as the Browns' kickoff return for a TD). But hardcore picks shouldn't have to be finessed, so I'm throwing this into the softcore camp.
• Antwaan Randle-El was relatively quiet on offense, though if you're in some leagues that count kickoff and punt returns, he would have given you decent production. Still, based on the most conservative scoring, he remain no more hardcore than my neighbor Patsy McSofty.

• Adrian Peterson finished this week firmly in the top 10 among running backs. I'll have to run the numbers, but I may not be able to recommend him next week, as he's now among the RB elites.
• Vernon Davis scratched the top 10 with his best output of the season. How did we know it would happen against the Steelers' stingy defense? Because he made his discontent known to the media. He's one of the 49ers' 3 franchise players, so he's going to be heard.

Fantasy predictions aren't guesses. In their simplest form, they're based on this formula:

talent (plus) motivation (minus) opposing defense

There are surprise winners every week. The only hard part is doing the research.