2007 NFL -- Week 3 Recap -- Back in the Groove

In case you're joining us mid-season, this blog aims to help you find the "surprises" each week. I won't recommend top-10 players at any position, but when a lower-ranked player finishes a week in the top 10 at his position, that's what makes him "hardcore."

Last Friday, Wade C. from Nashville asked me whether to play Ronnie Brown or LenDale White. I told him Brown was due. How did I know? Because the Miami Herald had just run a story where two Hall-of-Fame Dolphins running backs (Mercury Morris and Jim Kiick) were questioning Coach Cameron's decision to rein in Brown. At 0-2, Cameron needed to make some changes, and the most obvious one would be to turn Brown loose. Sure enough, Brown tied for 1st among running backs this week.

In Week 3 I gave you 3 softies (Josh McCown, Antwaan Randle-El, and the Raiders Defense) and 2 hardies (Adrian Peterson and Vernon Davis).

• McCown was on pace to do some damage against the weak Browns defense, but his injury brought out my humble side.
• The Raiders Defense actually finished in the top 10 using SportingNews Fantasy scoring, which only counts "points against" when they come against your defense (and not on special teams, such as the Browns' kickoff return for a TD). But hardcore picks shouldn't have to be finessed, so I'm throwing this into the softcore camp.
• Antwaan Randle-El was relatively quiet on offense, though if you're in some leagues that count kickoff and punt returns, he would have given you decent production. Still, based on the most conservative scoring, he remain no more hardcore than my neighbor Patsy McSofty.

• Adrian Peterson finished this week firmly in the top 10 among running backs. I'll have to run the numbers, but I may not be able to recommend him next week, as he's now among the RB elites.
• Vernon Davis scratched the top 10 with his best output of the season. How did we know it would happen against the Steelers' stingy defense? Because he made his discontent known to the media. He's one of the 49ers' 3 franchise players, so he's going to be heard.

Fantasy predictions aren't guesses. In their simplest form, they're based on this formula:

talent (plus) motivation (minus) opposing defense

There are surprise winners every week. The only hard part is doing the research.

2007 NFL -- Week 3

Here are your Week 3 hardcore picks:

QB -- Josh McCown: How bad is he? More importantly, how bad is the defense of Cleveland--his opponent this coming Sunday? Cleveland has given up 79 points in the first two weeks, and has lived up to its expectation as one of the worst defenses in the league. McCown has a very strong receiving corps and has proven he can put up big numbers (Week 1 -- 313 yards). His coach also has said that this might be McCown's last start. Motivation + home field + terrible defense = hardcore pick.

RB -- Adrian Peterson has had a solid start to his pro career. Now he visits the hapless Chiefs, who have given up 100+ rushing hards in their first two games. With the Vikings' Tavaris Jackson all but inept at QB, look to Minnesota to rely on Peterson once again to carry the team.

WR -- Antwaan Randle El is going up against one of the other worst defenses (the Giants). He was lights out opening weekend. His quiet Week 2 should only serve to motivate him more this Sunday.

TE -- Vernon Davis is getting dumped by some owners. As I wrote in my last post, he also is speaking out publicly for Alex Smith to pass to him. His opponent this week, the Steelers, are a tough defense. But that doesn't mean the large and athletic Davis can't out-man whoever's defending him. Pick Davis up and activate him. He wants some hardcore action.

Defense -- The Raiders are viewed by many experts as having a decent defense--not one of the best, not one of the worst. They're playing a Cleveland team that put up 51 points last week; that's more than most Browns teams score in a month. All too predictably, teams that out-perform one week come back down to earth the next week. Look for Oakland to man-handle their over-achieving opponent.

2007 NFL -- Week 2 Recap -- R.I.P. Fantasy BJ?

What can be said about my abysmal Week 2 picks?

(1) The Saints are better than how they're playing. It would be shocking if they didn't finish with a winning record.

(2) The Bears offense is as bad as they've been playing. It would be shocking if Grossman finishes the season as the starter.

My Week 2 shortcomings raises a larger issue that I've heard from many of you:

When do you cut bait on a high-round draft pick who's underperforming?

The top 3 picks in many drafts were LaDainian Tomlinson, Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson. Tomlinson had an awful Week 2, Jackson has been mortal each of the first two weeks, and Johnson . . . In my friend Wade's league, one of the owners actually benched Johnson in Week 2. That's probably been his best decision of the year.

But these 2 fantasy stalwarts are not alone in their futility. Those who own Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and Marion Jones-Drew are wondering when it's time to cut bait. It's too late to "trade high" with these players. So what's an owner to do?

The answer is to do the following:

(1) Read the hometown newspaper of your underperforming star to find out what they're saying. For example, I read today how stud 2nd-year tight end Vernon Davis--who's been damn near invisible for the first two weeks--is mouthing off that he's open almost every play, and that his team needs to get him the ball. Sounds like something LaMont Jordan told the media two years ago--a few days before he ran for 3 TD's. So read up on the local angle so you can figure out the mindset of your players.

(2) Trust in the law of averages. When Chris Brown ran for 175 yards in Week 1, people rushed to pick him up. Had he been a fantasy stud in any of his past seasons? No. So why did people think someone splitting carries on a mediocre offensive team could keep that up? Sure enough, Brown totaled only 36 yards last week, ruining the weeks of many people who were counting on him to dominate once again. On the opposite end of the spectrum, proven players like Tomlinson and Brees will find their sea legs and finish the season with strong numbers.

(3) Float some of your underperforming stars as trade bait to your fellow owners, offering trades that would have seemed fair when the season started. For example, casually see if the guy who owns fast-starting Carson Palmer is willing to trade him for your Tomlinson or your Jackson. At this stage, the Palmer owner would say "Go to hell." But then ask again in 3 weeks, when Palmer levels out and your superstar has rebounded to top-tier status. It's a little gamesmanship, with the outcome keeping your fellow owners off-balance, wishing that they'd taken advantage of the trade when it was first offered, and hopefully luring them into making hasty trades or drop-adds when their players start to dip.