Fantasy B.J.'s Week 9 Hardcore Predictions: The Rebound Effect

The Rebound Effect

• When a bad player has a bad game, that player is not likely to rebound in his next game.

• When a mediore player has a bad game, that player has a medicore shot at rebounding in his next game.

• When a great player has a bad game, expect that player to rebound, hardcore-style.

This is our Week 9 philosophy, and it should carry us through any fantasy sports competition we pursue from today until the day we're 6 feet under (or a mile up if you're a fan of heaven).

As you know, I'll never recommend rock-star players; you should be playing these guys week after week, and you don't need me to tell you otherwise.

For our purposes, the "Rebound Effect" should be applied to undervalued players who are ready to explode in their next game. Sure, they might come back down to Earth in Week 10, but all we care about right now is Week 9. All we care about is whether 1 or 2 "mediocre" players will rise to the occasion and help fill a gap on your team, providing a TD or 2 to put you over the top against that old high school buddy you really wanna beat.

And with that, let's look at this week's hardcore picks, and what makes each potentially a top-10 player at their position for Week 9:

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QB -- Jason Campbell: The Redskins were absolutely destroyed against the Patriots last week. Campbell sucked, throwing an interception and losing 3 fumbles, dropping him to #20 in CBS Sportsline's QB statistical ratings. As you know, motivation is a very important "Fantasy B.J." factor when selecting undervalued performers. Read this Canadian Press article to see how the Redskins are planning to respond. Going up against the anemic Jets, you can count on Campbell and the rest of the 'Skins to put up hardcore numbers.

RB -- Kevin Jones: As good as Jones has looked the last two games, he's still not viewed as an upper-tier running back:

• He's rushed for less than 700 yards in each of his last two seasons
• He plays in a "pass first" system, where carries are hard to come by
• He's coming off a foot injury that has limited his contributions this season

So why is he a hardcore play for Week 9? He's playing the worst rushing defense in the league--and one that is coming off a short week's rest after playing Monday night. He's also hungry to make something of a season that almost got away from him. One bad game from Jones might mean a return of Tatum Bell. Jones is motivated to help carry this team, and at least this week, he will.

WR -- Jerry Porter has the potential for explosive games; he just hasn't delivered very often. Why this week? Three hardcore reasons:

1. Josh McCown is back at QB, which will help the passing game
2. They're playing a weak Houston defense
3. WR Ronald Curry is battling a foot injury, which might clear the way for Porter to step up
4. After an off game last week, Porter will rebound with big stats
   

Obviously, if you have top-tier options at WR, keep them active. But if you're looking to fill a hole, play Porter with reckless abandon.

TE -- Vernon Davis has been on this list before. His potential is on par with nearly any tight end in the league. He is the go-to guy in San Francisco. Last week he reminded fans what he's capable of with a 71-yard, 1-TD performance, which can easily be duplicated against the hapless Falcons in Week 9. and with his preferred QB Alex Smith back at the helm, it's time to recommend Davis one more time . . . before he's too good to list on this site.

Defense -- The Redskins: After giving up 52 points last week, Washington's defense now ranks 12th in CBS Sportsline's statistical rankings. They're just mediocre enough to qualify on this blog. Good thing, too, because I'm picking them to be the #1 defense of the week. Crazy, you say?

Let's put it this way, I haven't been this confident since picking Chris Cooley three weeks ago, and he put together a truly hardcore performance. Expect the 'Skins to dominate the Jets the same way the Patriots dominated them.

It's like the big brother who gets beaten up at school and then takes it out on the little brother. Poor little Jets. Poor little munchkins. . . .