Week 8 Recap -- Use Picks for Good, Not for Evil

Week 8 was solid. 2 hardcore picks out of 5--given the significant risks of taking each--is nothing to sneeze at or vomit on.

I realize that by having a blog read every day by percentages of millions of people, I am expected to help you make lots of money and win respect from your peers by giving you the answers to all of life's fantasy secrets. As you sit comfortably at your office desk, shielding the computer screen so that your co-workers think you're finishing up that report, remember what your godfather said at your 5th birthday party: "One game does not a season make." Do you remember? Think harder. I'll wait . . .

Okay, I'm done waiting. The beauty and ugliness of fantasy sports is that success is absolute: If you win, you're a winner; if you lose, you're a loser . . . or at least that's what my godfather always told me every time I lost at something.

I bring this up because a reader wrote to me this afternoon saying that he "ran with all [my] picks," and that he was going to lose because of my system. As I mention repeatedly on this site, my picks should not supplant your great players if your great players look strong for their upcoming game. They are mediocre players who have a great shot of exceeding expectations.

For example, tight end Jason Witten--the top TE going into this week--was on a bye. If you own Witten or another TE who's either on a bye or injured or facing a miserable match-up, I strongly recommended you take Greg Olsen.

One game does not a season make. One hardcore or lame pick does not a blog make. It is the philosophy that matters. And over the course of the season, when applied properly, it will enable you to trash-talk your friends when it counts most: after you win the championship.

With this in mind, let's learn from Week 8's losses and wins, starting with our losses:

Lame Picks

• DeShawn Wynn: For you new readers out there, "lame" picks are ones that failed miserably. You would have been better off flipping a coin than taking this player. Wynn was named the starter this week in Green Bay, and he was facing Denver's crap-ass defense. He ran one time before injuring his shoulder--the 2nd time in 3 weeks that one of my hardcore picks succumbed to pain after only one series. It should be noted that his replacement--a 4th-stringer--finished with 111 total yards. Lesson learned: You can't anticipate injuries unless you play someone who's Questionable or worse heading into the game. Wynn was Probable. We couldn't have seen this coming.

Softcore Picks

• The Buccaneers Defense: They finished 20th best for the week. Heading into the week, they were the 18th best defense. So they essentially played to their capabilities. Lesson learned: The reason I recommended them is flawed, and should not soon be repeated. Since Garrard was out at QB for Jacksonville, and since his replacement Gray went to Crap-Ass University with Denver's D, I trusted that the Bucs wouldn't have to worry about the pass, and could instead focus on the Jaguars' running game. The result? Tampa Bay couldn't stop the run. And more importantly, with only 7 passes (compared to 44 running playes) the Jaguars didn't give the Bucs many opportunities to sack Gray or force an interception. So let's add this to our hardcore bag o' knowledge.

• Jericho Cotchery also was a softcore pick. Does this mean he was bad? Not at all. Applying CBS Sportsline's statistical method, Cotchery finished in the top 30 among wide receivers. If you inserted him into you line-up to replace someone injured or on a bye, then you earned decent points. If you inserted him into your line-up to replace Randy Moss, then you're an idiot.
  

Hardcore Picks

• Marc Bulger: When a mediocre performer exceeds expectations and finishes in the top 10 at their position, then they're deemed hardcore. Bulger entered the game ranked as the 35th best QB statistically by CBS Sportsline. After I made the pick on Saturday, a reader commented that I was crazy for making such a pick. But I had done my homework and had very good reasons for picking him: He was relatively healthy, he had Steven Jackson back in the line-up (albeit briefly), he has his full complement of receivers for the first time in ages, and he was facing a crap-ass (my new favorite word, I've just decided) Cleveland defense. Bulger helped a lot of teams this week; it's too bad for his sake that the Rams weren't one of 'em.

• Greg Olsen was the big surprise this week. Heading into his Sunday game, Olsen was the 14th best tight end statistically. I picked him as a hardcore selection because of his rapport with Griese, the Lions' ass-crap (trying to mix it up a bit) defense, and some things I'd read in local papers. All signs pointed to Olsen having a surprisingly strong day. He didn't disappoint, finishing with the best game of his career.
  

This isn't easy stuff. There are a lot of variables to consider. But if we do our homework, then we can increase our chances . . . for crap-assiness? No silly, for success.