2007 NFL -- Week 4

It's Week 4, and if only I could pick Brady or Addai or any receiver named Johnson. But that's for other, simpler blogs that state the obvious and then pat themselves on the back. If you're like me or the owners in my league, you've got 1 or 2 star players, 1 or 2 underperforming stars, 1 or 2 injured stars, and a smattering of mediocrity (anyone have too many #3 receivers?).

It's time to upgrade your mediocrity.

Here are your Week 4 hardcore picks:

QB -- Trent Green: Before getting injured last year, Green was accustomed to throwing a lot for a lot of yards. This week he faces an underperforming Raiders defense that's giving up a lot of passing yards. And at 0-3, the Dolphins are seeking to overcome last week's devastating defeat to the Jets. Playing at home in what could be their last home game in front of cheering fans, expect Green and his receiving corps--including rejuvenated RB Ronnie Brown--to put up big numbers.

RB -- Cedric Benson is one of several underperforming Bears, leading some fans to question the decision to release Thomas Jones, and leading some fantasy fans to question Benson's hardcore credentials. After 3 weeks, he's one of the worst starting running backs in the league. All that will change this week against the Lions, as the Bears will utilize a more efficient and more conservative offense. This means a lot of carries and a lot of yards for Benson.

WR -- Lee Evans. When he was drafted in my league this year, everyone nodded in agreement; this guy was going to be a fantasy stud. But he's been playing like a retiree (no offense to the elderly, but most can't out-run cornerbacks). One area of concern is the Bills' QB situation: J.P. Losman is questionable, so back-up Trent Edwards might start. But after facing 3 premier defenses (the Broncos, Steelers, and Patriots), look for Buffalo's offense to get back on track against the poorly defensed Jets. And Evans will be a hardcore beneficiary.

TE -- Desmond Clark. Does anyone remember this guy from last year? He had some big games and finished the season with 6 TD's--near the top among tight ends. This year he's splitting time with rookie Greg Olsen. But this is the week to pick up and activate him. Why? With Brian Griese replacing Rex Grossman at QB, look for Griese to lead a more conservative passing attack, with dump-offs and 8-yard routes. Chicago is fighting to stay relevant in their division. Playing a weak defense like Detroit will only improve their--and Clark's--chance to succeed.

Defense -- The Chargers were one of the first defenses selected in this year's fantasy drafts. They also were among the first to get dumped. No longer a top 10 defense, and facing the anemic Chiefs, this once proud team is a perfect hardcore choice for Week 4.

2007 NFL -- Week 3 Recap -- Back in the Groove

In case you're joining us mid-season, this blog aims to help you find the "surprises" each week. I won't recommend top-10 players at any position, but when a lower-ranked player finishes a week in the top 10 at his position, that's what makes him "hardcore."

Last Friday, Wade C. from Nashville asked me whether to play Ronnie Brown or LenDale White. I told him Brown was due. How did I know? Because the Miami Herald had just run a story where two Hall-of-Fame Dolphins running backs (Mercury Morris and Jim Kiick) were questioning Coach Cameron's decision to rein in Brown. At 0-2, Cameron needed to make some changes, and the most obvious one would be to turn Brown loose. Sure enough, Brown tied for 1st among running backs this week.

In Week 3 I gave you 3 softies (Josh McCown, Antwaan Randle-El, and the Raiders Defense) and 2 hardies (Adrian Peterson and Vernon Davis).

• McCown was on pace to do some damage against the weak Browns defense, but his injury brought out my humble side.
• The Raiders Defense actually finished in the top 10 using SportingNews Fantasy scoring, which only counts "points against" when they come against your defense (and not on special teams, such as the Browns' kickoff return for a TD). But hardcore picks shouldn't have to be finessed, so I'm throwing this into the softcore camp.
• Antwaan Randle-El was relatively quiet on offense, though if you're in some leagues that count kickoff and punt returns, he would have given you decent production. Still, based on the most conservative scoring, he remain no more hardcore than my neighbor Patsy McSofty.

• Adrian Peterson finished this week firmly in the top 10 among running backs. I'll have to run the numbers, but I may not be able to recommend him next week, as he's now among the RB elites.
• Vernon Davis scratched the top 10 with his best output of the season. How did we know it would happen against the Steelers' stingy defense? Because he made his discontent known to the media. He's one of the 49ers' 3 franchise players, so he's going to be heard.

Fantasy predictions aren't guesses. In their simplest form, they're based on this formula:

talent (plus) motivation (minus) opposing defense

There are surprise winners every week. The only hard part is doing the research.