Week 8 Hardcore Picks -- Back to the Basics

I received an e-mail today from David M. who's playing in 3 leagues--or at least 3 that he admitted. There could be more.

He posed the age-old fantasy question, "I have 'x' number of players and have to sit 2 of them. Which ones should I bench?"

As I wrote this past Tuesday, the first step toward returning to basics is understanding your league's scoring system. If you're choosing between a running back and an equally skilled wide receiver for a "flex" spot on your active roster, which position tends to produce more fantasy points in your league? Look at your league's total scoring leaders: If 10 of the top 30 are RBs and only 3 are a WRs, then that might give you guidance on how to pick your flex spot.

On top of that, how tough is the defense they're facing? Apply my #2 hardcore strategy every time, and you'll automatically have an edge on your opponent.

Finally, are they motivated? I've told the story about LaMont Jordan two years ago telling the media that he was sick of not getting enough carries. Since the Raiders were losing, something had to change within the team's system. Jordan was the logical choice. So I picked him up, and he scored 3 TDs in his next game. The same applied earlier this year, when I picked up Jordan off waivers before Week 1, believing that he'd be motivated to play 110% for the 4 weeks Dominic Rhodes was out, so that he'd keep the starting job. Look up his stats during those first 4 games (552 total yards, 2 TDs), and you'll see how his motivation paid off for fantasy owners--as well as how back problems and ascension to clear-cut #1 RB have shut him down the past two games.

The following picks, as always, feature players who many teams have either reserved or dropped. None are among the top 10 at their position. But it's time to get them into your line-up:

QB -- Marc Bulger: I drafted him in the 4th round last year in my 14-team head-to-head league, and he helped me win the championship. This year he's been a colossal joke, much like Godzilla, who I recently discovered isn't real. But Bulger is real, and he's hungry. Although his offensive line is battered, for the first time in ages he'll have Steven Jackson back on the field. As you may recall from last season, Bulger utilized Jackson as a receiver to complement Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. At 0-7, expect the Rams to finally play like they did in '06, and to run up the score against the Browns--one of the worst defenses in the league.

RB -- DeShawn Wynn: You won't ever catch me hedging my bets on this site. A hardcore player makes the smartest pick he/she can and lets it ride, knowing that they did everything they could to pick the right player. Sure, there are better players than Wynn on this site, but he's the most undervalued running back in Week 8. Wynn has inherited the starting job . . . for now. As he said earlier this week, "It's definitely something I can't get complacent with." Vernand Morency and Brandon Jackson are among those waiting in the wings to take the starting job back. Facing a Broncos team that is ranked dead last in rushing defense, combined with a home game on Monday night, makes Wynn a very hardcore play.

WR -- Jerricho Cotchery: When your quarterback is playing for his job, and when you're playing the 3rd worst pass defense, you expect to get some catches. When your name is Jerricho Cotchery, it adds up to a lot of yards. Cotchery is known for making big plays. Is he risky some weeks? Sure. But playing at home in a rivalry game makes him a fantastic option.

TE -- Greg Olsen is slowly becoming a fixture in the Bears offense, especially with Brian Griese at the helm. Coming into a Week 8 match-up against the rival Lions, the Bears are amazingly a game-and-a-half behind Detroit in the NFC North. But they will not allow the Lions to beat them at home--not this game, at least. Griese's leadership and skills are finally paying dividends, and Olsen has been one of the beneficiaries. The fact that the Lions own the 2nd-worst pass defense makes Olsen an under-the-radar hardcore pick.

Defense -- The Buccaneers: I'm putting my money where my mouth is, as I picked up the Bucs off waivers earlier this week to replace my bye-week Ravens. Actually, I picked up the Jaguars first, but then some guy made the softcore mistake of dropping the Bucs, so I made the switch. Why Tampa Bay, which is only the 14th best defense in my head-to-head league? First, don't underestimate the advantage of playing at home. Second, the Jaguars are playing their 2nd-stringer QB, who played like he'd just been plucked from a flag football league. Finally, Maurice Jones-Drew is gimpy; even if he plays, it will be difficult for them to move the ball against the Buccaneers.

Good luck this week. But if you're operating like a hardcore player, you probably won't need it. Do your homework, make smart picks, and let reality take its course.

Questions for Fantasy B.J.

NOTE TO READERS: Due to enormous increased volume on this site, I've received more hardcore fantasy questions than ever before. Please be patient: I plan to respond to each one by no later than 3:00pm this Saturday.

Then I'm heading out for the evening.

The Friday Interview -- A Sit-down With Jo-Jo McSofty

If you're a frequent reader of Hardcore Fantasy Sports Blog, you know all about Jo-Jo McSofty. Let's fill in the newbies.

Jo-Jo is the type of fantasy sports player who makes softcore fantasy decisions, leading invariably to fantasy futility. Maybe there are several Jo-Jo's in your league. Maybe you're one of them. Shhhh, it's okay. We're here to help.

How do you know if you're a Jo-Jo? Read on.

I sat down with Jo-Jo this morning to learn more about what makes this Fantasy Non-Icon tick:

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-- What makes you tick, Jo-Jo? --

That's loaded question. There are so many things.

-- So name just one thing. --

One?

-- Yes, one. --

I'm kinda nervous.

-- Does this help? [NOTE TO READERS: At this point, I put my hand reassuringly on his shoulder] --

What were we talking about again?

-- Let's try a new question. What's your strategy for deciding which free agents to pick up? --

That's easy: I look at who did the best the previous game.

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Are sirens going off in your head? If not, then you're a Jo-Jo McSofty.

One of the biggest mistakes softcore players make is picking up a bad player who had one great game. If you're considering picking up a break-out player, do your homework first.

1. Why did that player suddenly rock? Was someone else injured? Did most of the stats come during end-of-game "garbage time" when the defense was slacking off?
2. What's the outlook for the coming week? Are they starting? How tough is the defense they're facing?
3. What's the local paper saying? Are they anticipating a trend, or do they sense things will return to normal next game?

After playing as a #3 WR last season for the Rams, 29-year-old Kevin Curtis--now with the Eagles--entered this season as a low-end filler in most fantasy leagues. His highest season yardage total was 801 yards; his second highest was 479 yards . . . certainly not a hot commodity by any stretch.

After two quiet games to start the season, Curtis broke out in Game 3 with 221 yards and 3 TDs. Such gawdy stats usually are reserved for All-Pros like Chad Johnson and Steve Smith. So what happened? All of the world's Jo-Jo's clamored to pick him up, believing that this half-decent wide receiver was suddenly a top commodity.

In the CBS Sportsline fantasy leagues, Curtis was started in 9% of leagues in Game 3. After his break-out performance, that number rose to 80% in Game 4. 80%.

And how did Curtis do the following week? A pathetic 21 yards with no scores.

Don't get me wrong: Curtis is more valuable this year than at any time in his career. He's proven in 2 out of 6 games that he can help your fantasy team. But he's not an every-week player.

So the next time a previously unheralded player has a break-out game, do your homework. One hardcore performance does not translate into a full season of hardcore performances. Separate the flukes from the gamers, and you'll be on your way to beating all the other Jo-Jo's in your league.

"Top Ten" Thursday

With apologies to David Letterman--and if this goes poorly, with deep apologies--each Thursday we'll bring you a Top Ten List on a topical fantasy football story. This week we're covering the Miami Dolphins, a once storied franchise that has descended to the depths of fantasy hell. In the last few weeks alone, the team has seen the loss of:

• #1 RB Ronnie Brown (to torn ACL)
• #1 WR Chris Chambers (to the Chargers)
• #1 QB Trent Green (to concussion)
• #1 Linebacker Zach Thomas (to car crash)

While bad teams certainly can have great fantasy players, the Dolphins are running out of options. They are dead last in defense, and they are without their only two legitimate offensive threats. Do we really expect Marty Booker and Derek Hagan to pick up the slack at wide-out? Can we imagine Cleo Lemon leading the Dolphins back from 21-point deficits (which will occur each game at arond the 8-minute mark of the 1st quarter)? Can anyone explain how new #1 RB Jesse Chatman will get any carries near the goal line, as the 'Fins struggle to avoid going 3-and-out on every possession?

And so, with 0-16 imminent, here it is . . .

The Top Ten Things The Dolphins Actually Could Be Good At:

10. Covering the spread

9. Watching television

8. Patting each other's asses after a well-deserved 1-yard run on 3rd and 8

7. Patting their opponents' asses when there's no ass left to pat

6. Making toast

5. Sending "thank you" notes to their 40 remaining fans

4. Getting hit by lightning (or some other freakish accident destined to befall this cursed team)

3. Eating Snickers bars

2. Farting

1. Instilling in their opponents a healthy sense of pride

2007 NFL -- Week 7 Recap -- Is Rob Bironas Relevant?

Time to open the mail bag once again. Here's a letter from weekly reader Rob Bironas of the Titans:

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Dear Fantasy B.J.,

All season I've been annoyed as hell that you don't make hardcore predictions for field goal kickers. No punter picks? I can understand that. Punters are wusses. But I've worked very hard to become an NFL kicker, spending hours each day stretching my legs and watching others play football.

By last Sunday, I'd had just about enough of your negligence. So I kicked a record 8 field goals--not to win the game, but to prove you wrong. Kickers can make a differnce. From now on, you should treat us like football players, and not as the former-soccer-players-who-weren't-good-enough-to-go-pro that we are.

Sincerely,

Rob "Hardcore Now and Forever" Bironas

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In my head-to-head league, waivers shut down 5 minutes before game time and don't open up until 5:30pm on Tuesday. We get to pick in reverse order of our record, so that the worst teams get the pick of the litter. And so I was struck dumb a little over an hour ago when 4 waiver pick-ups were wasted on kickers.

Whether you're drafting or playing the free agent market, know your league's scoring system. Which positions are worth more than others? In our league--as in most--kickers are the bottom of the barrel.

Here's how my league stacks up. Through 7 weeks, the top points at each position are:

• Kicker -- 66 points (Kris Brown)


• Defense -- 89 points (Patriots, Chiefs)


• Running Back -- 110 points (Ronnie Brown)


• Tight End -- 118.5 points (Jason Witten)


• Wide Receiver -- 142 points (Randy Moss)


• Quarterback -- 205 points (Tom Brady)

There are 13 QBs better than the best kicker. 18 WRs. 12 Defenses. And so on. Predicting weekly kicker performances is almost as futile as wasting a high waiver pick on one. How many times have I read some fantasy pundit say, "Pick Kicker A because he's playing against an easy defense."? It just doesn't work that way.

Do what I do, especially if you don't have a spare player to drop: Cut your kicker and pick up an extra offensive player. Then scan the news in the days leading up to game-time. Right before the cut-off, drop your least important player and snag a kicker who's connected on a fairly high percentage (80% should be the target). I follow this strategy nearly every week. Today it led to my picking up Lee Evans, who appears to ready to resume his place among the wide receiver elite--or at least put up a respectable 70-90 yards a game.

Whatever you do, understand how your league scoring works. Only then can you capitalize on each pick you make.

As for Week 7, Patrick Crayton had a shockingly anemic performance, while Vernon Davis and the Saints defense were adequate at best. But Drew Brees came through with his 2nd best performance of the year. And as pointed out yesterday, Kenny Watson finished #1 at his position.

Remember, do your homework. Only then can you earn your hardcore degree.

This kid is a master fantasy athlete. Get to know him. Get to know his books.

The Parable of the Good Samaritan Running Back

A certain running back went down from head to turf, and fell among linebackers, who stripped him of his ball, and wounded him, and returned to their huddle, leaving him out 6-8 weeks. And by chance there came down that way a certain back-up running back; and when he saw the wounded 1st stringer, he passed by on the other side, joined his huddle, and proceeded to rush for 60 yards on 9 carries.

---

One fantasy owner's blessing is another's curse. In a season when players are dropping left and right, crushing the hopes of people who thought they drafted great teams, hardcore owners are laughing all the way to the win column.

Why? Because hardcore owners know what it takes to win. They live by the motto:

Winning fantasy sports is 50% draft, 50% free agent pick-ups, and 50% luck.

Oh, hello math wizards who just wrote in: "But Fantasy BJ! Fantasy BJ! How can anything add up to 150%? Aren't you an idiot?"

No, my softcore math angels. I am an opportunist. And if you think you can get away with having only a great draft or only good luck, then you are doomed to fail far more than you think.

When Rudi Johnson went down, most people who had him on their roster were crushed. But rather than do something about it, they merely complained: "This isn't fair. All my best players are getting hurt. Wait 'til next year . . . I'll prove I'm the best fantasy player." Our softcore friend Jo-Jo McSofty would be proud.

However, a few people viewed Rudi Johnson not as a fantasy villain, but a true Good Samaritan, bringing joy to all those seeking another adequate running back. In this case, the beneficiary was Kenny Watson.

He was available in my league as late as last Friday, when I picked him up once Rudi Johnson's injury condition fell to Doubtful. The fact that the Bengals played the anemic Jets this Sunday--augmented by the fact that the Bengals were in a must-win situation--meant that Watson was in for a big game. He was one of my 5 hardcore picks this week, and he lived up to the expectation:

157 total yards. 3 touchdowns.

Barring a surprise Monday night, he will finish the week as the #1 performer at his position. Some of you might have followed the advice of CBS Sportsline, which picked him as the 26th best running back for the week. Maybe you'll think twice before listening to CBS Sportsline, which tends to place the same top 10 players within their top 10, regardless of current realities.

For those of you looking to improve your teams, commit to memory the Parable of the Good Samaritan Running Back. It's played out again and again, week after week. One player's injury is another player's bust-out performance. Pick the correct replacement to add to your team each week, and you'll win. Simple? No. But that's why I'm here.