Fantasy success isn't only about having great players; it's also about having mediocre players who exceed expectations. Renowned fantasologist B.J. Rudell predicts which undervalued players will produce hardcore stats in their next game. Learn winning strategies. Dispel century-old myths. Taunt friends who don't know about this site. And return each day for the latest tips, anecdotes, and those prized picks that will make you a legend.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

2007 NFL -- Week 6

Last week I talked about one difference between hardcore and softcore fantasy players--that hardcore players understand the importance of scanning the Internet Sunday morning for last-minute injury reports and other helpful fantasy gossip. With so many great players remaining game-time decisions this Sunday, don't let Sunday morning pass you by.

I know what you're thinking: "But I'm out 'til 4am doin' my thang, and I'm lucky if I can even wake up by game-time." Well, Jo-Jo McSofty, sounds like you've gotta figure out what's important in your life. Extra sleep? It can wait? Baby to feed? It can wait. Yoga class to attend? Don't make me laugh.

In my 14-team head-to-head league, my strategy this week was to drop my kicker and two other inconsequential players and pick up three running backs: Earnest Graham, Kenny Watson, and Jason Wright. Watson and Wright are in for solid days if their teams' starters--Rudi Johnson and Jamal Lewis--can't play. With Johnson and Lewis in the "Questionable" injury camp, I plan to scour the Web before game-time to get the facts and make the necessary changes. And in the short-term, I prevent my opponents from landing these two semi-hot commodities.

Here are your Week 6 hardcore picks, which are dedicated to Chris Harris. My friend Justin met him at a wedding last weeknd. Chris makes fantasy predictions for ESPN, and therefore is the luckiest guy I almost know:


QB -- Kurt Warner: I'm not jumping on the bandwagon; I'm stating the obvious. With Matt Leinart on the IR, Warner has the rest of the season to re-stake his claim as a premier QB. An exaggeration? Not at all. Warner has been the quintessential team player since the Rams bumped him for Marc Bulger. He went from hero to cast-off far quicker than deserved. With one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL, with Boldin a strong possibility to return from injury, and facing a suspect Panthers pass defense, Warner is ready to explode, hardcore-style.

RB -- Larry Johnson has been very bad. Last week he carried 9 times for 12 yards--the icing on the proverbial crap cake. This week he's at home against a spotty Bengals D (150+ rushing yards yielded per game). He's also going to play angry, which is exactly where you want LJ: out to prove himself to his team and to the football community.

WR -- Bobby Engram: With Deion Branch injured, Engram is stepping into the #1 receiver role. Combine that with the Seahawks' god-awful performance last week against the Steelers, and the whole team is motivated to avenge themselves. The fact that the Saints are a mess makes Engram a hardcore solution if you've got a softcore WR who deserves to get yanked.

TE -- Randy McMichael: There are so many underperformers this season; it makes you wonder when they'll turn it around. McMichael is in a prime spot, despite the fact that his team is not. Facing a tough Ravens D, the Rams are without their 2 of their 4 main offensive weapons (Bulger and Jackson), while their other 2 (Holt and Bruce) are "questionable" on the injury list. McMichael will be relied on more than ever this week.

Defense -- The Eagles: This is the week the Eagles D bounces back. They're better than they've tended to play, while the Jets are worse. I generally don't prefer defenses that play on the road, but given the match-up, I can't resist. The Eagles are coming off a bye week, while the Jets are coming off an ugly loss to the Giants. Chad Pennington is questionable, making the Jets QB situation perilous at best. It all adds up to an Eagles romp.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

2007 NFL -- Week 5 Recap -- A Hardcore Daily Double

As a hardcore fantasy player, I've been touring fantasy hot spots throughout the country to gain new insights, which I'm happy to pass on to you. For example, Nashville has a lot of buildings, while Atlanta has a lot more. This is good stuff people; write it down.

Actually, I was in Atlanta this weekend and watched Sunday's early games at a tex-mex sports bar called something-or-other . . . I can't remember. Anyway, my friend Chris and I got there around 12:15pm, which gave me a little time to check last minute news on his wireless laptop. The best fantasy info in the world comes between noon and 12:59pm Eastern Standard Time. The way to win your league is to pay attention to last-minute injury reports.

So at 12:45pm, I learned that Chris's tight end was injured. "Crap, who should I play?" he asked. Rather than belabor the point that he clearly hadn't read my last posting, I gave him two words: "Chris" and "Cooley." (ed. note: my friend's name is Chris, but he's not Chris Cooley, in case that was confusing to some of you).

So he quickly inserted Chris Cooley into his lineup, and about 45 minutes later, Cooley scored a TD.

It's just that simple, folks. Read this blog, and your likelihood of winning will improve. Talk with me face-to-face before the game, and you're gonna kick hardcore butt.

In Week 5 I gave you 2 hardies (Cooley, Eli Manning) and 3 softies (Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, 49ers Defense).

And it should be pointed out that Bush, Marshall, and the 49ers D each had solid games. Were they near the top at their position? No. But each exceeded their average stats to date.

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, and which I'll keep harping on, fantasy predictions aren't guesses. In their simplest form, they're based on this formula:

talent (plus) motivation (minus) opposing defense

There are surprise performers each week. Keep reading this blog to learn who the next ones will be.