Fantasy B.J.'s Week 9 Hardcore Predictions: The Rebound Effect

The Rebound Effect

• When a bad player has a bad game, that player is not likely to rebound in his next game.

• When a mediore player has a bad game, that player has a medicore shot at rebounding in his next game.

• When a great player has a bad game, expect that player to rebound, hardcore-style.

This is our Week 9 philosophy, and it should carry us through any fantasy sports competition we pursue from today until the day we're 6 feet under (or a mile up if you're a fan of heaven).

As you know, I'll never recommend rock-star players; you should be playing these guys week after week, and you don't need me to tell you otherwise.

For our purposes, the "Rebound Effect" should be applied to undervalued players who are ready to explode in their next game. Sure, they might come back down to Earth in Week 10, but all we care about right now is Week 9. All we care about is whether 1 or 2 "mediocre" players will rise to the occasion and help fill a gap on your team, providing a TD or 2 to put you over the top against that old high school buddy you really wanna beat.

And with that, let's look at this week's hardcore picks, and what makes each potentially a top-10 player at their position for Week 9:

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QB -- Jason Campbell: The Redskins were absolutely destroyed against the Patriots last week. Campbell sucked, throwing an interception and losing 3 fumbles, dropping him to #20 in CBS Sportsline's QB statistical ratings. As you know, motivation is a very important "Fantasy B.J." factor when selecting undervalued performers. Read this Canadian Press article to see how the Redskins are planning to respond. Going up against the anemic Jets, you can count on Campbell and the rest of the 'Skins to put up hardcore numbers.

RB -- Kevin Jones: As good as Jones has looked the last two games, he's still not viewed as an upper-tier running back:

• He's rushed for less than 700 yards in each of his last two seasons
• He plays in a "pass first" system, where carries are hard to come by
• He's coming off a foot injury that has limited his contributions this season

So why is he a hardcore play for Week 9? He's playing the worst rushing defense in the league--and one that is coming off a short week's rest after playing Monday night. He's also hungry to make something of a season that almost got away from him. One bad game from Jones might mean a return of Tatum Bell. Jones is motivated to help carry this team, and at least this week, he will.

WR -- Jerry Porter has the potential for explosive games; he just hasn't delivered very often. Why this week? Three hardcore reasons:

1. Josh McCown is back at QB, which will help the passing game
2. They're playing a weak Houston defense
3. WR Ronald Curry is battling a foot injury, which might clear the way for Porter to step up
4. After an off game last week, Porter will rebound with big stats
   

Obviously, if you have top-tier options at WR, keep them active. But if you're looking to fill a hole, play Porter with reckless abandon.

TE -- Vernon Davis has been on this list before. His potential is on par with nearly any tight end in the league. He is the go-to guy in San Francisco. Last week he reminded fans what he's capable of with a 71-yard, 1-TD performance, which can easily be duplicated against the hapless Falcons in Week 9. and with his preferred QB Alex Smith back at the helm, it's time to recommend Davis one more time . . . before he's too good to list on this site.

Defense -- The Redskins: After giving up 52 points last week, Washington's defense now ranks 12th in CBS Sportsline's statistical rankings. They're just mediocre enough to qualify on this blog. Good thing, too, because I'm picking them to be the #1 defense of the week. Crazy, you say?

Let's put it this way, I haven't been this confident since picking Chris Cooley three weeks ago, and he put together a truly hardcore performance. Expect the 'Skins to dominate the Jets the same way the Patriots dominated them.

It's like the big brother who gets beaten up at school and then takes it out on the little brother. Poor little Jets. Poor little munchkins. . . .

The Thursday Interview -- Another Conversation With Jo-Jo McSofty

Jo-Jo McSofty has become a familiar voice on Hardcore Fantasy Sports Blog. To the newbies out there, he represents the fantasy player who makes softcore fantasy decisions, leading invariably to fantasy futility.

Last week, when I asked Jo-Jo about his strategy for picking up free agents between games, he replied:

"I look at who did the best the previous game."

Gasp. [Pausing to catch my breath] That may work once in a while, but it's not a hardcore strategy. As I touched on in yesterday's blog, it's not an approach that guarantees a high probability of success.

Today we'll hear more from Jo-Jo, the guy we all root for, but someone we know will fail in the end:

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-- Why do you fail, Jo-Jo? --

Isn't that a rude question?


-- Rude because I'm right? Or rude because you're wrong? --

I think I deserve a 3rd option.

-- Next question: Why don't you succeed, Jo-Jo? --

I'm starting to get a headache.

-- Let me feel. [NOTE TO READERS: At this point, I place my hand on his forehead and confirm he has a fever] --

What were we talking about again?

-- Let's try a new question. You are perennially mediocre at running fantasy teams. Some years you have a great draft but a terrible regular season; other years you assemble a great team through free agent pick-ups but blow it on a desperate late-season trade. Why don't you ever win? --

That's easy: I get distracted.

-- Elaborate please. --

Well, for starters, my boss is keeping me at work 'til all hours . . . then there's my wife who's driving me up the wall, but I s'pose that's par for the course . . . and then the twins have to be bathed and put to bed . . . oh, and don't forget ol' Sparky, who needs a good 20-minute walk outside . . . and I'm always heading to Home Depot for some renovation projects that my wife . . .

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Once again, Jo-Jo demonstrates what it means to be softcore. Do we aspire to be like Jo-Jo? No. Then why do we allow ourselves to become Jo-Jo?

It's time for some tough love, people. Playing Fantasy Sports the hardcore way is not for everyone, including:

• The meek


• The lazy


• The masochistic


• The curious


• The vain


• The indecisive


• The easily distracted


• The lovingly married
  

The answer is clear: If you want to win, you're gonna have to make sacrifices. Fantasy Sports requires full-blooded commitment, not half-blooded resignation or quarter-blooded procrastination.

Now you're probably asking, "But Fantasy B.J., what have you sacrificed?"

What have I sacrified, you ask?

"Yes, that's what we're asking. Stop procrastinating."

I'll tell you what I've sacrificed. I've stood at the alter of my fantasy church and, with shaky voice and quivering lips, recited the holiest of vows:

"I, Fantasy B.J., take thee

Fantasy Sports, to be my

lover, and before fantasy

sports players and non-

fantasy sports players, I

promise to be a faithful and

true fantasy player."

That's what it takes, my friends. That, and sacrificing a lamb if you have one.

See ya tomorrow.

Gut-check: What To Do About Those "Gut Feelings"

Someone named "hidrnick" added a comment after last Sunday's blog asking whether I would add "gut feeling" to my approach for picking hardcore fantasy players. Currently I pick players based on empirical evidence such as:

1. Unrealized player potential (I've mentioned Lee Evans as a break-out candidate for this reason, and he's starting to prove me right)


2. Injury situation on team (for example, why Marc Bulger was damaged goods before getting Isaac Bruce and Steven Jackson back on the field last week--at least for one game)


3. Defensive match-up (or offensive match-up when picking defenses)


4. Motivation (by scouring local newspapers and wire feeds for indications of how much that player wants to exceed expectations)

In a blog earlier this month, I foretold the statistical demise of LaMont Jordan--a player I had just dropped from my roster in my head-to-head-league. It was not a "gut feeling" that led me to dismiss one of the NFL's top performing running backs, who in 4 games had amassed 2 TDs and more than 550 all-purpose yards (rushing+receiving). Read that day's blog to learn why. Yes, people thought I was crazy, but there was a stack of evidence showing that Jordan was not worth holding onto.

Sure enough, in his 3 games since, Jordan has been statistically irrelevant, and there's no evidence that he'll turn it around.

So is there room for "gut feeling" when considering player moves? In my humble opinion, no. Gut feelings might help you occasionally, but over the long term, their results will not be better than those cultivated through hardcore research and high-level fantasy thinking.

Too many softcore fantasy players try to take the easy way out. If they're doing great, they sit back and relax and expect to win again, without any consideration for ways to continue to improve their team. If they're not doing well, they blindly pick up waiver players with the best stats and hope for the best, thinking nothing of the potential of lesser statistical players. After Marc Bulger's top-10 performance last week, someone in my league just picked him up off waivers. But why didn't they pick him up last week (when I listed him as my hardcore pick at QB)? Because he was 35th overall at his position.

And that's the difference between hardcore and softcore players:

• Harcore players take smart risks when the evidence shows a high probability of success


• Softcore players minimize risk by narrowing their focus to statistics and "gut feelings"

To be a hardcore fantasy player, you need to remove "gut feelings" from the equation. The hardcore player examines match-ups, weighs probabilities, and develops a strategy that meets both short-term goals ( winning the upcoming week's match-up) and long-term goals (winning the championship).

Don't listen to Jo-Jo McSofty. Don't listen to your gut. Listen instead to LaMont Jordan, Marc Bulger, Greg Olsen, and all of the players whose fortunes have risen and fallen in predictable fashion. Stay tuned for the next set of undervalued players whose fortunes are likely to rise this weekend.

Week 8 Recap -- Use Picks for Good, Not for Evil

Week 8 was solid. 2 hardcore picks out of 5--given the significant risks of taking each--is nothing to sneeze at or vomit on.

I realize that by having a blog read every day by percentages of millions of people, I am expected to help you make lots of money and win respect from your peers by giving you the answers to all of life's fantasy secrets. As you sit comfortably at your office desk, shielding the computer screen so that your co-workers think you're finishing up that report, remember what your godfather said at your 5th birthday party: "One game does not a season make." Do you remember? Think harder. I'll wait . . .

Okay, I'm done waiting. The beauty and ugliness of fantasy sports is that success is absolute: If you win, you're a winner; if you lose, you're a loser . . . or at least that's what my godfather always told me every time I lost at something.

I bring this up because a reader wrote to me this afternoon saying that he "ran with all [my] picks," and that he was going to lose because of my system. As I mention repeatedly on this site, my picks should not supplant your great players if your great players look strong for their upcoming game. They are mediocre players who have a great shot of exceeding expectations.

For example, tight end Jason Witten--the top TE going into this week--was on a bye. If you own Witten or another TE who's either on a bye or injured or facing a miserable match-up, I strongly recommended you take Greg Olsen.

One game does not a season make. One hardcore or lame pick does not a blog make. It is the philosophy that matters. And over the course of the season, when applied properly, it will enable you to trash-talk your friends when it counts most: after you win the championship.

With this in mind, let's learn from Week 8's losses and wins, starting with our losses:

Lame Picks

• DeShawn Wynn: For you new readers out there, "lame" picks are ones that failed miserably. You would have been better off flipping a coin than taking this player. Wynn was named the starter this week in Green Bay, and he was facing Denver's crap-ass defense. He ran one time before injuring his shoulder--the 2nd time in 3 weeks that one of my hardcore picks succumbed to pain after only one series. It should be noted that his replacement--a 4th-stringer--finished with 111 total yards. Lesson learned: You can't anticipate injuries unless you play someone who's Questionable or worse heading into the game. Wynn was Probable. We couldn't have seen this coming.

Softcore Picks

• The Buccaneers Defense: They finished 20th best for the week. Heading into the week, they were the 18th best defense. So they essentially played to their capabilities. Lesson learned: The reason I recommended them is flawed, and should not soon be repeated. Since Garrard was out at QB for Jacksonville, and since his replacement Gray went to Crap-Ass University with Denver's D, I trusted that the Bucs wouldn't have to worry about the pass, and could instead focus on the Jaguars' running game. The result? Tampa Bay couldn't stop the run. And more importantly, with only 7 passes (compared to 44 running playes) the Jaguars didn't give the Bucs many opportunities to sack Gray or force an interception. So let's add this to our hardcore bag o' knowledge.

• Jericho Cotchery also was a softcore pick. Does this mean he was bad? Not at all. Applying CBS Sportsline's statistical method, Cotchery finished in the top 30 among wide receivers. If you inserted him into you line-up to replace someone injured or on a bye, then you earned decent points. If you inserted him into your line-up to replace Randy Moss, then you're an idiot.
  

Hardcore Picks

• Marc Bulger: When a mediocre performer exceeds expectations and finishes in the top 10 at their position, then they're deemed hardcore. Bulger entered the game ranked as the 35th best QB statistically by CBS Sportsline. After I made the pick on Saturday, a reader commented that I was crazy for making such a pick. But I had done my homework and had very good reasons for picking him: He was relatively healthy, he had Steven Jackson back in the line-up (albeit briefly), he has his full complement of receivers for the first time in ages, and he was facing a crap-ass (my new favorite word, I've just decided) Cleveland defense. Bulger helped a lot of teams this week; it's too bad for his sake that the Rams weren't one of 'em.

• Greg Olsen was the big surprise this week. Heading into his Sunday game, Olsen was the 14th best tight end statistically. I picked him as a hardcore selection because of his rapport with Griese, the Lions' ass-crap (trying to mix it up a bit) defense, and some things I'd read in local papers. All signs pointed to Olsen having a surprisingly strong day. He didn't disappoint, finishing with the best game of his career.
  

This isn't easy stuff. There are a lot of variables to consider. But if we do our homework, then we can increase our chances . . . for crap-assiness? No silly, for success.

The Parable of the Good Samaritan Fantasy Drafter

A certain fantasy team owner named Eric had to leave town during the weekend of the annual fantasy draft, which would have stripped him of his team, which would have wounded his pride, and which would have left him bored for the next few months. He begged the other league owners to pick his team in his absence, so that he might have a team to return to.

And by chance there came a certain other fantasy team owner in the same league; and when he grasped the grave severity of the situation, he nevertheless rejected Eric's plea to pick his team. And likewise another owner saw him, and he too ignored Eric's entreaties.

But a certain Good Samaritan, when he was contacted by Eric, had compassion for him, and agreed to pick his team for him, and proceeded to pick an incredibly talented team--a team even more talented than the one he picked for himself.

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If you're like me, there's always someone missing at your league's draft. Sometimes a league's owners collectively agree on which player is selected when it's the missing person's turn to pick. And sometimes an "honest" owner is asked to pick the best team for those who are absent.

Perhaps it was my attempt to "do what Jesus would do," but this year I agreed to pick for my long-time friend Eric H. I don't recall why he was missing; he became a father last year, so perhaps he had certain "baby duties" to which a guy like me could never relate.

When you agree to pick someone else's team, in good faith, you shouldn't let it influence how you pick your team. For example, when it was Eric's turn in the 5th round, I knew that the undervalued Randy Moss was still available. (Let's not forget that Moss was coming off a disappointig 553-yard, 3-TD season--placing him under the radar in many drafts.) Since I was picking my team 3 turns later, I could have drafted someone else for Eric, hoping that Moss would be available when it was my team's turn.

But I felt obligated to be a Good Samaritan, and so I drafted Moss for Eric's team. There were some "ooooooh's" from the other league owners in the room, as they had forgotten all about Moss. It's quite possible that, had Eric been present, Moss would have fallen into my lap later that round.

And so it was bitterly ironic yesterday to lose 86-81 to Eric . . . to lose to a team that I assembled--a team that included (statistically):

• The #1 WR (Randy Moss)


• The #1 TE (Jason Witten)


• The #1 Defense (The Patriots)

Even with Witten on a bye, the QB I picked for Eric (Drew Brees) more than compensated for the TE's absence by tossing 4 TDs.

As with all parables, there's a lesson to be learned:

Don't stretch your allegiances beyond your investments.

Whether you're drafting a team or picking players off waivers, don't compromise your capabilities. Don't let your opponents benefit from your research. Softcore attitudes don't lead to championships. Hardcore attitudes do. Damn right.

So the next time your friend has to leave town or play with their baby or show some other blatant diregard for all that is holy in Fantasy Land, do yourself a favor: Turn the other cheek.

Now that's an attitude even Jesus would endorse.

This Day in Fantasy Sports History: October 28

October 28, 1962:

The New York Giants' Y.A. Tittle passes for 505 yards and 7 touchdowns, leading accountant Jimmy Sampson's "Kennedy Sensations" to a 105-97 victory over typist Julia Fontaine's "Lawrence Welkathons."

The loss dropped Ms. Fontaine's record to 2-and-6, prompting her to mail a first-class letter to her league's commissioner announcing that this would be her final season.