2007 NFL -- Week 3

Here are your Week 3 hardcore picks:

QB -- Josh McCown: How bad is he? More importantly, how bad is the defense of Cleveland--his opponent this coming Sunday? Cleveland has given up 79 points in the first two weeks, and has lived up to its expectation as one of the worst defenses in the league. McCown has a very strong receiving corps and has proven he can put up big numbers (Week 1 -- 313 yards). His coach also has said that this might be McCown's last start. Motivation + home field + terrible defense = hardcore pick.

RB -- Adrian Peterson has had a solid start to his pro career. Now he visits the hapless Chiefs, who have given up 100+ rushing hards in their first two games. With the Vikings' Tavaris Jackson all but inept at QB, look to Minnesota to rely on Peterson once again to carry the team.

WR -- Antwaan Randle El is going up against one of the other worst defenses (the Giants). He was lights out opening weekend. His quiet Week 2 should only serve to motivate him more this Sunday.

TE -- Vernon Davis is getting dumped by some owners. As I wrote in my last post, he also is speaking out publicly for Alex Smith to pass to him. His opponent this week, the Steelers, are a tough defense. But that doesn't mean the large and athletic Davis can't out-man whoever's defending him. Pick Davis up and activate him. He wants some hardcore action.

Defense -- The Raiders are viewed by many experts as having a decent defense--not one of the best, not one of the worst. They're playing a Cleveland team that put up 51 points last week; that's more than most Browns teams score in a month. All too predictably, teams that out-perform one week come back down to earth the next week. Look for Oakland to man-handle their over-achieving opponent.

2007 NFL -- Week 2 Recap -- R.I.P. Fantasy BJ?

What can be said about my abysmal Week 2 picks?

(1) The Saints are better than how they're playing. It would be shocking if they didn't finish with a winning record.

(2) The Bears offense is as bad as they've been playing. It would be shocking if Grossman finishes the season as the starter.

My Week 2 shortcomings raises a larger issue that I've heard from many of you:

When do you cut bait on a high-round draft pick who's underperforming?

The top 3 picks in many drafts were LaDainian Tomlinson, Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson. Tomlinson had an awful Week 2, Jackson has been mortal each of the first two weeks, and Johnson . . . In my friend Wade's league, one of the owners actually benched Johnson in Week 2. That's probably been his best decision of the year.

But these 2 fantasy stalwarts are not alone in their futility. Those who own Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and Marion Jones-Drew are wondering when it's time to cut bait. It's too late to "trade high" with these players. So what's an owner to do?

The answer is to do the following:

(1) Read the hometown newspaper of your underperforming star to find out what they're saying. For example, I read today how stud 2nd-year tight end Vernon Davis--who's been damn near invisible for the first two weeks--is mouthing off that he's open almost every play, and that his team needs to get him the ball. Sounds like something LaMont Jordan told the media two years ago--a few days before he ran for 3 TD's. So read up on the local angle so you can figure out the mindset of your players.

(2) Trust in the law of averages. When Chris Brown ran for 175 yards in Week 1, people rushed to pick him up. Had he been a fantasy stud in any of his past seasons? No. So why did people think someone splitting carries on a mediocre offensive team could keep that up? Sure enough, Brown totaled only 36 yards last week, ruining the weeks of many people who were counting on him to dominate once again. On the opposite end of the spectrum, proven players like Tomlinson and Brees will find their sea legs and finish the season with strong numbers.

(3) Float some of your underperforming stars as trade bait to your fellow owners, offering trades that would have seemed fair when the season started. For example, casually see if the guy who owns fast-starting Carson Palmer is willing to trade him for your Tomlinson or your Jackson. At this stage, the Palmer owner would say "Go to hell." But then ask again in 3 weeks, when Palmer levels out and your superstar has rebounded to top-tier status. It's a little gamesmanship, with the outcome keeping your fellow owners off-balance, wishing that they'd taken advantage of the trade when it was first offered, and hopefully luring them into making hasty trades or drop-adds when their players start to dip.