Gut-check: What To Do About Those "Gut Feelings"

Someone named "hidrnick" added a comment after last Sunday's blog asking whether I would add "gut feeling" to my approach for picking hardcore fantasy players. Currently I pick players based on empirical evidence such as:

1. Unrealized player potential (I've mentioned Lee Evans as a break-out candidate for this reason, and he's starting to prove me right)


2. Injury situation on team (for example, why Marc Bulger was damaged goods before getting Isaac Bruce and Steven Jackson back on the field last week--at least for one game)


3. Defensive match-up (or offensive match-up when picking defenses)


4. Motivation (by scouring local newspapers and wire feeds for indications of how much that player wants to exceed expectations)

In a blog earlier this month, I foretold the statistical demise of LaMont Jordan--a player I had just dropped from my roster in my head-to-head-league. It was not a "gut feeling" that led me to dismiss one of the NFL's top performing running backs, who in 4 games had amassed 2 TDs and more than 550 all-purpose yards (rushing+receiving). Read that day's blog to learn why. Yes, people thought I was crazy, but there was a stack of evidence showing that Jordan was not worth holding onto.

Sure enough, in his 3 games since, Jordan has been statistically irrelevant, and there's no evidence that he'll turn it around.

So is there room for "gut feeling" when considering player moves? In my humble opinion, no. Gut feelings might help you occasionally, but over the long term, their results will not be better than those cultivated through hardcore research and high-level fantasy thinking.

Too many softcore fantasy players try to take the easy way out. If they're doing great, they sit back and relax and expect to win again, without any consideration for ways to continue to improve their team. If they're not doing well, they blindly pick up waiver players with the best stats and hope for the best, thinking nothing of the potential of lesser statistical players. After Marc Bulger's top-10 performance last week, someone in my league just picked him up off waivers. But why didn't they pick him up last week (when I listed him as my hardcore pick at QB)? Because he was 35th overall at his position.

And that's the difference between hardcore and softcore players:

• Harcore players take smart risks when the evidence shows a high probability of success


• Softcore players minimize risk by narrowing their focus to statistics and "gut feelings"

To be a hardcore fantasy player, you need to remove "gut feelings" from the equation. The hardcore player examines match-ups, weighs probabilities, and develops a strategy that meets both short-term goals ( winning the upcoming week's match-up) and long-term goals (winning the championship).

Don't listen to Jo-Jo McSofty. Don't listen to your gut. Listen instead to LaMont Jordan, Marc Bulger, Greg Olsen, and all of the players whose fortunes have risen and fallen in predictable fashion. Stay tuned for the next set of undervalued players whose fortunes are likely to rise this weekend.