The Thursday Interview -- Another Conversation With Jo-Jo McSofty

Jo-Jo McSofty has become a familiar voice on Hardcore Fantasy Sports Blog. To the newbies out there, he represents the fantasy player who makes softcore fantasy decisions, leading invariably to fantasy futility.

Last week, when I asked Jo-Jo about his strategy for picking up free agents between games, he replied:

"I look at who did the best the previous game."

Gasp. [Pausing to catch my breath] That may work once in a while, but it's not a hardcore strategy. As I touched on in yesterday's blog, it's not an approach that guarantees a high probability of success.

Today we'll hear more from Jo-Jo, the guy we all root for, but someone we know will fail in the end:

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-- Why do you fail, Jo-Jo? --

Isn't that a rude question?


-- Rude because I'm right? Or rude because you're wrong? --

I think I deserve a 3rd option.

-- Next question: Why don't you succeed, Jo-Jo? --

I'm starting to get a headache.

-- Let me feel. [NOTE TO READERS: At this point, I place my hand on his forehead and confirm he has a fever] --

What were we talking about again?

-- Let's try a new question. You are perennially mediocre at running fantasy teams. Some years you have a great draft but a terrible regular season; other years you assemble a great team through free agent pick-ups but blow it on a desperate late-season trade. Why don't you ever win? --

That's easy: I get distracted.

-- Elaborate please. --

Well, for starters, my boss is keeping me at work 'til all hours . . . then there's my wife who's driving me up the wall, but I s'pose that's par for the course . . . and then the twins have to be bathed and put to bed . . . oh, and don't forget ol' Sparky, who needs a good 20-minute walk outside . . . and I'm always heading to Home Depot for some renovation projects that my wife . . .

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Once again, Jo-Jo demonstrates what it means to be softcore. Do we aspire to be like Jo-Jo? No. Then why do we allow ourselves to become Jo-Jo?

It's time for some tough love, people. Playing Fantasy Sports the hardcore way is not for everyone, including:

• The meek


• The lazy


• The masochistic


• The curious


• The vain


• The indecisive


• The easily distracted


• The lovingly married
  

The answer is clear: If you want to win, you're gonna have to make sacrifices. Fantasy Sports requires full-blooded commitment, not half-blooded resignation or quarter-blooded procrastination.

Now you're probably asking, "But Fantasy B.J., what have you sacrificed?"

What have I sacrified, you ask?

"Yes, that's what we're asking. Stop procrastinating."

I'll tell you what I've sacrificed. I've stood at the alter of my fantasy church and, with shaky voice and quivering lips, recited the holiest of vows:

"I, Fantasy B.J., take thee

Fantasy Sports, to be my

lover, and before fantasy

sports players and non-

fantasy sports players, I

promise to be a faithful and

true fantasy player."

That's what it takes, my friends. That, and sacrificing a lamb if you have one.

See ya tomorrow.

Gut-check: What To Do About Those "Gut Feelings"

Someone named "hidrnick" added a comment after last Sunday's blog asking whether I would add "gut feeling" to my approach for picking hardcore fantasy players. Currently I pick players based on empirical evidence such as:

1. Unrealized player potential (I've mentioned Lee Evans as a break-out candidate for this reason, and he's starting to prove me right)


2. Injury situation on team (for example, why Marc Bulger was damaged goods before getting Isaac Bruce and Steven Jackson back on the field last week--at least for one game)


3. Defensive match-up (or offensive match-up when picking defenses)


4. Motivation (by scouring local newspapers and wire feeds for indications of how much that player wants to exceed expectations)

In a blog earlier this month, I foretold the statistical demise of LaMont Jordan--a player I had just dropped from my roster in my head-to-head-league. It was not a "gut feeling" that led me to dismiss one of the NFL's top performing running backs, who in 4 games had amassed 2 TDs and more than 550 all-purpose yards (rushing+receiving). Read that day's blog to learn why. Yes, people thought I was crazy, but there was a stack of evidence showing that Jordan was not worth holding onto.

Sure enough, in his 3 games since, Jordan has been statistically irrelevant, and there's no evidence that he'll turn it around.

So is there room for "gut feeling" when considering player moves? In my humble opinion, no. Gut feelings might help you occasionally, but over the long term, their results will not be better than those cultivated through hardcore research and high-level fantasy thinking.

Too many softcore fantasy players try to take the easy way out. If they're doing great, they sit back and relax and expect to win again, without any consideration for ways to continue to improve their team. If they're not doing well, they blindly pick up waiver players with the best stats and hope for the best, thinking nothing of the potential of lesser statistical players. After Marc Bulger's top-10 performance last week, someone in my league just picked him up off waivers. But why didn't they pick him up last week (when I listed him as my hardcore pick at QB)? Because he was 35th overall at his position.

And that's the difference between hardcore and softcore players:

• Harcore players take smart risks when the evidence shows a high probability of success


• Softcore players minimize risk by narrowing their focus to statistics and "gut feelings"

To be a hardcore fantasy player, you need to remove "gut feelings" from the equation. The hardcore player examines match-ups, weighs probabilities, and develops a strategy that meets both short-term goals ( winning the upcoming week's match-up) and long-term goals (winning the championship).

Don't listen to Jo-Jo McSofty. Don't listen to your gut. Listen instead to LaMont Jordan, Marc Bulger, Greg Olsen, and all of the players whose fortunes have risen and fallen in predictable fashion. Stay tuned for the next set of undervalued players whose fortunes are likely to rise this weekend.

Week 8 Recap -- Use Picks for Good, Not for Evil

Week 8 was solid. 2 hardcore picks out of 5--given the significant risks of taking each--is nothing to sneeze at or vomit on.

I realize that by having a blog read every day by percentages of millions of people, I am expected to help you make lots of money and win respect from your peers by giving you the answers to all of life's fantasy secrets. As you sit comfortably at your office desk, shielding the computer screen so that your co-workers think you're finishing up that report, remember what your godfather said at your 5th birthday party: "One game does not a season make." Do you remember? Think harder. I'll wait . . .

Okay, I'm done waiting. The beauty and ugliness of fantasy sports is that success is absolute: If you win, you're a winner; if you lose, you're a loser . . . or at least that's what my godfather always told me every time I lost at something.

I bring this up because a reader wrote to me this afternoon saying that he "ran with all [my] picks," and that he was going to lose because of my system. As I mention repeatedly on this site, my picks should not supplant your great players if your great players look strong for their upcoming game. They are mediocre players who have a great shot of exceeding expectations.

For example, tight end Jason Witten--the top TE going into this week--was on a bye. If you own Witten or another TE who's either on a bye or injured or facing a miserable match-up, I strongly recommended you take Greg Olsen.

One game does not a season make. One hardcore or lame pick does not a blog make. It is the philosophy that matters. And over the course of the season, when applied properly, it will enable you to trash-talk your friends when it counts most: after you win the championship.

With this in mind, let's learn from Week 8's losses and wins, starting with our losses:

Lame Picks

• DeShawn Wynn: For you new readers out there, "lame" picks are ones that failed miserably. You would have been better off flipping a coin than taking this player. Wynn was named the starter this week in Green Bay, and he was facing Denver's crap-ass defense. He ran one time before injuring his shoulder--the 2nd time in 3 weeks that one of my hardcore picks succumbed to pain after only one series. It should be noted that his replacement--a 4th-stringer--finished with 111 total yards. Lesson learned: You can't anticipate injuries unless you play someone who's Questionable or worse heading into the game. Wynn was Probable. We couldn't have seen this coming.

Softcore Picks

• The Buccaneers Defense: They finished 20th best for the week. Heading into the week, they were the 18th best defense. So they essentially played to their capabilities. Lesson learned: The reason I recommended them is flawed, and should not soon be repeated. Since Garrard was out at QB for Jacksonville, and since his replacement Gray went to Crap-Ass University with Denver's D, I trusted that the Bucs wouldn't have to worry about the pass, and could instead focus on the Jaguars' running game. The result? Tampa Bay couldn't stop the run. And more importantly, with only 7 passes (compared to 44 running playes) the Jaguars didn't give the Bucs many opportunities to sack Gray or force an interception. So let's add this to our hardcore bag o' knowledge.

• Jericho Cotchery also was a softcore pick. Does this mean he was bad? Not at all. Applying CBS Sportsline's statistical method, Cotchery finished in the top 30 among wide receivers. If you inserted him into you line-up to replace someone injured or on a bye, then you earned decent points. If you inserted him into your line-up to replace Randy Moss, then you're an idiot.
  

Hardcore Picks

• Marc Bulger: When a mediocre performer exceeds expectations and finishes in the top 10 at their position, then they're deemed hardcore. Bulger entered the game ranked as the 35th best QB statistically by CBS Sportsline. After I made the pick on Saturday, a reader commented that I was crazy for making such a pick. But I had done my homework and had very good reasons for picking him: He was relatively healthy, he had Steven Jackson back in the line-up (albeit briefly), he has his full complement of receivers for the first time in ages, and he was facing a crap-ass (my new favorite word, I've just decided) Cleveland defense. Bulger helped a lot of teams this week; it's too bad for his sake that the Rams weren't one of 'em.

• Greg Olsen was the big surprise this week. Heading into his Sunday game, Olsen was the 14th best tight end statistically. I picked him as a hardcore selection because of his rapport with Griese, the Lions' ass-crap (trying to mix it up a bit) defense, and some things I'd read in local papers. All signs pointed to Olsen having a surprisingly strong day. He didn't disappoint, finishing with the best game of his career.
  

This isn't easy stuff. There are a lot of variables to consider. But if we do our homework, then we can increase our chances . . . for crap-assiness? No silly, for success.