Top Ten Lame-Ass Fantasy Team Names

Flashback to early September: It's a few days before opening weekend in the NFL. You've drafted your team. You've scouted your opponents' rosters for potential trades. And you've cleared your Sunday schedule for the next 17 weeks. One critical element remains:

Picking a witty team name

You know the feeling: 10 minutes after entering the name on your league Web site, you eagerly await the inevitable "Brilliant" and "You are brilliant" and "I can't believe you're so brilliant" e-mails from your opponents.

But they never come, do they? No, they never come. And why not? Because you're not funny.

Still, there's hope. If you can learn how to avoid the mis-steps that have damaged millions of reputations, you might be well on your way to a winning team name . . . and as a result, quite possibly, a winning team.

---

Top Ten Lame-Ass Fantasy Team Names

(with thanks to Chris Hood and Dan Johnson for contributing 3 of the entries)

10. The Winners

You love telling people how great you are. But when you're home alone in the dark, you sob yourself to sleep while clutching your tattered Teddy Ruxpin.

9. The Athletic Supporters

You are a genius at word play! A Shakespeare for the modern age! And a nimrod for borrowing a pun that's older than the Bible . . . and not nearly as funny. Now go read to your girlfriend from your Mad Magazine collection.

8. The Tom Brady Bunch

Okay, I think I get this. Wait, don't tell me. Okay, there's Tom Brady--I get that. He's a football player. And then there's . . . hold on . . . gimme another moment . . . to figure out . . . this riddle . . .

7. Big Balls

Not only do you have big balls, but now you've let the world in on your secret. Too bad you have only two to share. And too bad you're so transparently over-compensating for your latent sexual inferiority complex.

6. Hammer Time

Your team name each year since '91. You enjoy calling your opponent every Sunday, proclaiming, "U can't touch this" and "I'm 2 legit 2 quit," and then quickly hanging up and sighing contentedly while grabbing another extra-large handful of Cheetos. And you wonder why nobody has your number stored on their cell phone. . . .

5. The Icky Shuffle

A throwback to pathetic touchdown celebrations. You're the lone Bengals fan in your league eager to remind the world of your team's "glory days." You practice the Shuffle at home before bed each night so that you can present it to your friends at the annual Christmas party. But sadly, your dance performance--like its name--looks more like a frantic walk of shame after losing control with the latest Maxim magazine.

4. The Mighty Morphin Flower Arrangers

You've taken the name of an endearing children's television show and turned it on its ear. How brazenly naughty. How sinfully decadent. Congratulations on being crowned emperor of Tool-ville.

3. The Dynamic Duo

You've decided to co-own a team with your best bud in the world. Two great friends, one super squad--joined at the hip, fantasy-style. It'll soon be apparent that you're too amazing for this league. And it's all too apparent that you're too cheap to pay for separate teams.

2. The John Elways (or any other sports hero you'll never meet)

By naming your team after your favorite player, you're showing all the other punks in your league that you're playing to win. This alone should intimidate them into forfeiting each game. And if they don't, you can always go home and write yet another letter to Elway asking what women look like up close.

1. Norfolk-in-Chance

As in, "No F*cking Chance." But you've taken it a step further, gleefully burying the dirty word in a series of clean words. You're so excited about your awesome name that you go home to brag to your girlfriend. But she's already moved out.

---

Barring an unforeseen Digg-like marketing blitz, this will be my last blog post. Topping out at 99 visitors per day, this site requires too much research and writing--2-3 hours daily--to warrant continuing for .0000015% of the world's population.

Now I realize the .0000015% of you might be pissed--at least those of you who haven't clicked away by now. You're wondering, "What will become of us? Where will we turn next?"

Whatever time you spent reading this site, I suggest you invest it in something more useful, such as:

1. Picking up a book and reading the back cover
2. Playing catch with your favorite son for a minute
3. Starting cooking an egg
4. Thinking about what you're going to wear tomorrow

And what will become of me? Thank you for asking, loyal .0000015%. I've lost most of you? Okay, to the remaining .00000002%, in case . . . okay, to the final .000000001%, in . . . ugh, all right, to my parents, who are the only people still reading this . . . all right, to my mother, who's reading this to my father while he's in between conference calls with clients . . .

Fuck this. Turns out I'm the only one who's made it this far down the page.

-- What about me? --

Is that you, Fantasy B.J.?

-- Damn straight. Now listen up: --

-- Wherever there is an office cubicle where co-workers gather... --

-- Wherever there is a sports bar with a break in the action... --

-- Wherever there is a bathrooom stall to sit and collect one's thoughts... --

-- ...I'll be there to share my trademark hardcore fantasy sports analysis. --

Where are you going, Fantasy B.J.?

-- To Internet Heaven. --

What's up there?

-- Web sites that never survived. I've just finished reading Judge Lance Ito's blog . . . . --

And Dirk Hardy and Jo-Jo McSofty? Are they up there with you?

-- No, silly. They're a part of you. They've been a part of you all along. --

---

That's pretty much how the conversation ended. There were some other pleasantries tossed around, but nothing notable.

In the end, when it comes to winning at fantasy sports, remember this:

May your research be forever diligent, your emotions forever restrained, and your picks forever justifiable.

And so, on we go, spreading our buttery knowledge on toasty sports fans yearning to be consumed by fantasy truth. Always spread wide. And always eat heartily.

This Day in Fantasy Sports History: November 4

November 4, 1984:

The Seattle Seahawks' defense scored 4 touchdowns--all on interception returns--for high school teacher Billy Matthews' "Fierce Falcon Crests."

However, he lost a heart-breaker to attorney Rosetta Fandango's "Reagan Regulars," as the league commissioner's answering machine was broken that week, thus preventing Mr. Matthews from placing the Seahawks on his active roster.

Fantasy B.J.'s Week 9 Hardcore Predictions: The Rebound Effect

The Rebound Effect

• When a bad player has a bad game, that player is not likely to rebound in his next game.

• When a mediore player has a bad game, that player has a medicore shot at rebounding in his next game.

• When a great player has a bad game, expect that player to rebound, hardcore-style.

This is our Week 9 philosophy, and it should carry us through any fantasy sports competition we pursue from today until the day we're 6 feet under (or a mile up if you're a fan of heaven).

As you know, I'll never recommend rock-star players; you should be playing these guys week after week, and you don't need me to tell you otherwise.

For our purposes, the "Rebound Effect" should be applied to undervalued players who are ready to explode in their next game. Sure, they might come back down to Earth in Week 10, but all we care about right now is Week 9. All we care about is whether 1 or 2 "mediocre" players will rise to the occasion and help fill a gap on your team, providing a TD or 2 to put you over the top against that old high school buddy you really wanna beat.

And with that, let's look at this week's hardcore picks, and what makes each potentially a top-10 player at their position for Week 9:

---

QB -- Jason Campbell: The Redskins were absolutely destroyed against the Patriots last week. Campbell sucked, throwing an interception and losing 3 fumbles, dropping him to #20 in CBS Sportsline's QB statistical ratings. As you know, motivation is a very important "Fantasy B.J." factor when selecting undervalued performers. Read this Canadian Press article to see how the Redskins are planning to respond. Going up against the anemic Jets, you can count on Campbell and the rest of the 'Skins to put up hardcore numbers.

RB -- Kevin Jones: As good as Jones has looked the last two games, he's still not viewed as an upper-tier running back:

• He's rushed for less than 700 yards in each of his last two seasons
• He plays in a "pass first" system, where carries are hard to come by
• He's coming off a foot injury that has limited his contributions this season

So why is he a hardcore play for Week 9? He's playing the worst rushing defense in the league--and one that is coming off a short week's rest after playing Monday night. He's also hungry to make something of a season that almost got away from him. One bad game from Jones might mean a return of Tatum Bell. Jones is motivated to help carry this team, and at least this week, he will.

WR -- Jerry Porter has the potential for explosive games; he just hasn't delivered very often. Why this week? Three hardcore reasons:

1. Josh McCown is back at QB, which will help the passing game
2. They're playing a weak Houston defense
3. WR Ronald Curry is battling a foot injury, which might clear the way for Porter to step up
4. After an off game last week, Porter will rebound with big stats
   

Obviously, if you have top-tier options at WR, keep them active. But if you're looking to fill a hole, play Porter with reckless abandon.

TE -- Vernon Davis has been on this list before. His potential is on par with nearly any tight end in the league. He is the go-to guy in San Francisco. Last week he reminded fans what he's capable of with a 71-yard, 1-TD performance, which can easily be duplicated against the hapless Falcons in Week 9. and with his preferred QB Alex Smith back at the helm, it's time to recommend Davis one more time . . . before he's too good to list on this site.

Defense -- The Redskins: After giving up 52 points last week, Washington's defense now ranks 12th in CBS Sportsline's statistical rankings. They're just mediocre enough to qualify on this blog. Good thing, too, because I'm picking them to be the #1 defense of the week. Crazy, you say?

Let's put it this way, I haven't been this confident since picking Chris Cooley three weeks ago, and he put together a truly hardcore performance. Expect the 'Skins to dominate the Jets the same way the Patriots dominated them.

It's like the big brother who gets beaten up at school and then takes it out on the little brother. Poor little Jets. Poor little munchkins. . . .

The Thursday Interview -- Another Conversation With Jo-Jo McSofty

Jo-Jo McSofty has become a familiar voice on Hardcore Fantasy Sports Blog. To the newbies out there, he represents the fantasy player who makes softcore fantasy decisions, leading invariably to fantasy futility.

Last week, when I asked Jo-Jo about his strategy for picking up free agents between games, he replied:

"I look at who did the best the previous game."

Gasp. [Pausing to catch my breath] That may work once in a while, but it's not a hardcore strategy. As I touched on in yesterday's blog, it's not an approach that guarantees a high probability of success.

Today we'll hear more from Jo-Jo, the guy we all root for, but someone we know will fail in the end:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Why do you fail, Jo-Jo? --

Isn't that a rude question?


-- Rude because I'm right? Or rude because you're wrong? --

I think I deserve a 3rd option.

-- Next question: Why don't you succeed, Jo-Jo? --

I'm starting to get a headache.

-- Let me feel. [NOTE TO READERS: At this point, I place my hand on his forehead and confirm he has a fever] --

What were we talking about again?

-- Let's try a new question. You are perennially mediocre at running fantasy teams. Some years you have a great draft but a terrible regular season; other years you assemble a great team through free agent pick-ups but blow it on a desperate late-season trade. Why don't you ever win? --

That's easy: I get distracted.

-- Elaborate please. --

Well, for starters, my boss is keeping me at work 'til all hours . . . then there's my wife who's driving me up the wall, but I s'pose that's par for the course . . . and then the twins have to be bathed and put to bed . . . oh, and don't forget ol' Sparky, who needs a good 20-minute walk outside . . . and I'm always heading to Home Depot for some renovation projects that my wife . . .

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Once again, Jo-Jo demonstrates what it means to be softcore. Do we aspire to be like Jo-Jo? No. Then why do we allow ourselves to become Jo-Jo?

It's time for some tough love, people. Playing Fantasy Sports the hardcore way is not for everyone, including:

• The meek


• The lazy


• The masochistic


• The curious


• The vain


• The indecisive


• The easily distracted


• The lovingly married
  

The answer is clear: If you want to win, you're gonna have to make sacrifices. Fantasy Sports requires full-blooded commitment, not half-blooded resignation or quarter-blooded procrastination.

Now you're probably asking, "But Fantasy B.J., what have you sacrificed?"

What have I sacrified, you ask?

"Yes, that's what we're asking. Stop procrastinating."

I'll tell you what I've sacrificed. I've stood at the alter of my fantasy church and, with shaky voice and quivering lips, recited the holiest of vows:

"I, Fantasy B.J., take thee

Fantasy Sports, to be my

lover, and before fantasy

sports players and non-

fantasy sports players, I

promise to be a faithful and

true fantasy player."

That's what it takes, my friends. That, and sacrificing a lamb if you have one.

See ya tomorrow.

Gut-check: What To Do About Those "Gut Feelings"

Someone named "hidrnick" added a comment after last Sunday's blog asking whether I would add "gut feeling" to my approach for picking hardcore fantasy players. Currently I pick players based on empirical evidence such as:

1. Unrealized player potential (I've mentioned Lee Evans as a break-out candidate for this reason, and he's starting to prove me right)


2. Injury situation on team (for example, why Marc Bulger was damaged goods before getting Isaac Bruce and Steven Jackson back on the field last week--at least for one game)


3. Defensive match-up (or offensive match-up when picking defenses)


4. Motivation (by scouring local newspapers and wire feeds for indications of how much that player wants to exceed expectations)

In a blog earlier this month, I foretold the statistical demise of LaMont Jordan--a player I had just dropped from my roster in my head-to-head-league. It was not a "gut feeling" that led me to dismiss one of the NFL's top performing running backs, who in 4 games had amassed 2 TDs and more than 550 all-purpose yards (rushing+receiving). Read that day's blog to learn why. Yes, people thought I was crazy, but there was a stack of evidence showing that Jordan was not worth holding onto.

Sure enough, in his 3 games since, Jordan has been statistically irrelevant, and there's no evidence that he'll turn it around.

So is there room for "gut feeling" when considering player moves? In my humble opinion, no. Gut feelings might help you occasionally, but over the long term, their results will not be better than those cultivated through hardcore research and high-level fantasy thinking.

Too many softcore fantasy players try to take the easy way out. If they're doing great, they sit back and relax and expect to win again, without any consideration for ways to continue to improve their team. If they're not doing well, they blindly pick up waiver players with the best stats and hope for the best, thinking nothing of the potential of lesser statistical players. After Marc Bulger's top-10 performance last week, someone in my league just picked him up off waivers. But why didn't they pick him up last week (when I listed him as my hardcore pick at QB)? Because he was 35th overall at his position.

And that's the difference between hardcore and softcore players:

• Harcore players take smart risks when the evidence shows a high probability of success


• Softcore players minimize risk by narrowing their focus to statistics and "gut feelings"

To be a hardcore fantasy player, you need to remove "gut feelings" from the equation. The hardcore player examines match-ups, weighs probabilities, and develops a strategy that meets both short-term goals ( winning the upcoming week's match-up) and long-term goals (winning the championship).

Don't listen to Jo-Jo McSofty. Don't listen to your gut. Listen instead to LaMont Jordan, Marc Bulger, Greg Olsen, and all of the players whose fortunes have risen and fallen in predictable fashion. Stay tuned for the next set of undervalued players whose fortunes are likely to rise this weekend.

Week 8 Recap -- Use Picks for Good, Not for Evil

Week 8 was solid. 2 hardcore picks out of 5--given the significant risks of taking each--is nothing to sneeze at or vomit on.

I realize that by having a blog read every day by percentages of millions of people, I am expected to help you make lots of money and win respect from your peers by giving you the answers to all of life's fantasy secrets. As you sit comfortably at your office desk, shielding the computer screen so that your co-workers think you're finishing up that report, remember what your godfather said at your 5th birthday party: "One game does not a season make." Do you remember? Think harder. I'll wait . . .

Okay, I'm done waiting. The beauty and ugliness of fantasy sports is that success is absolute: If you win, you're a winner; if you lose, you're a loser . . . or at least that's what my godfather always told me every time I lost at something.

I bring this up because a reader wrote to me this afternoon saying that he "ran with all [my] picks," and that he was going to lose because of my system. As I mention repeatedly on this site, my picks should not supplant your great players if your great players look strong for their upcoming game. They are mediocre players who have a great shot of exceeding expectations.

For example, tight end Jason Witten--the top TE going into this week--was on a bye. If you own Witten or another TE who's either on a bye or injured or facing a miserable match-up, I strongly recommended you take Greg Olsen.

One game does not a season make. One hardcore or lame pick does not a blog make. It is the philosophy that matters. And over the course of the season, when applied properly, it will enable you to trash-talk your friends when it counts most: after you win the championship.

With this in mind, let's learn from Week 8's losses and wins, starting with our losses:

Lame Picks

• DeShawn Wynn: For you new readers out there, "lame" picks are ones that failed miserably. You would have been better off flipping a coin than taking this player. Wynn was named the starter this week in Green Bay, and he was facing Denver's crap-ass defense. He ran one time before injuring his shoulder--the 2nd time in 3 weeks that one of my hardcore picks succumbed to pain after only one series. It should be noted that his replacement--a 4th-stringer--finished with 111 total yards. Lesson learned: You can't anticipate injuries unless you play someone who's Questionable or worse heading into the game. Wynn was Probable. We couldn't have seen this coming.

Softcore Picks

• The Buccaneers Defense: They finished 20th best for the week. Heading into the week, they were the 18th best defense. So they essentially played to their capabilities. Lesson learned: The reason I recommended them is flawed, and should not soon be repeated. Since Garrard was out at QB for Jacksonville, and since his replacement Gray went to Crap-Ass University with Denver's D, I trusted that the Bucs wouldn't have to worry about the pass, and could instead focus on the Jaguars' running game. The result? Tampa Bay couldn't stop the run. And more importantly, with only 7 passes (compared to 44 running playes) the Jaguars didn't give the Bucs many opportunities to sack Gray or force an interception. So let's add this to our hardcore bag o' knowledge.

• Jericho Cotchery also was a softcore pick. Does this mean he was bad? Not at all. Applying CBS Sportsline's statistical method, Cotchery finished in the top 30 among wide receivers. If you inserted him into you line-up to replace someone injured or on a bye, then you earned decent points. If you inserted him into your line-up to replace Randy Moss, then you're an idiot.
  

Hardcore Picks

• Marc Bulger: When a mediocre performer exceeds expectations and finishes in the top 10 at their position, then they're deemed hardcore. Bulger entered the game ranked as the 35th best QB statistically by CBS Sportsline. After I made the pick on Saturday, a reader commented that I was crazy for making such a pick. But I had done my homework and had very good reasons for picking him: He was relatively healthy, he had Steven Jackson back in the line-up (albeit briefly), he has his full complement of receivers for the first time in ages, and he was facing a crap-ass (my new favorite word, I've just decided) Cleveland defense. Bulger helped a lot of teams this week; it's too bad for his sake that the Rams weren't one of 'em.

• Greg Olsen was the big surprise this week. Heading into his Sunday game, Olsen was the 14th best tight end statistically. I picked him as a hardcore selection because of his rapport with Griese, the Lions' ass-crap (trying to mix it up a bit) defense, and some things I'd read in local papers. All signs pointed to Olsen having a surprisingly strong day. He didn't disappoint, finishing with the best game of his career.
  

This isn't easy stuff. There are a lot of variables to consider. But if we do our homework, then we can increase our chances . . . for crap-assiness? No silly, for success.

The Parable of the Good Samaritan Fantasy Drafter

A certain fantasy team owner named Eric had to leave town during the weekend of the annual fantasy draft, which would have stripped him of his team, which would have wounded his pride, and which would have left him bored for the next few months. He begged the other league owners to pick his team in his absence, so that he might have a team to return to.

And by chance there came a certain other fantasy team owner in the same league; and when he grasped the grave severity of the situation, he nevertheless rejected Eric's plea to pick his team. And likewise another owner saw him, and he too ignored Eric's entreaties.

But a certain Good Samaritan, when he was contacted by Eric, had compassion for him, and agreed to pick his team for him, and proceeded to pick an incredibly talented team--a team even more talented than the one he picked for himself.

---

If you're like me, there's always someone missing at your league's draft. Sometimes a league's owners collectively agree on which player is selected when it's the missing person's turn to pick. And sometimes an "honest" owner is asked to pick the best team for those who are absent.

Perhaps it was my attempt to "do what Jesus would do," but this year I agreed to pick for my long-time friend Eric H. I don't recall why he was missing; he became a father last year, so perhaps he had certain "baby duties" to which a guy like me could never relate.

When you agree to pick someone else's team, in good faith, you shouldn't let it influence how you pick your team. For example, when it was Eric's turn in the 5th round, I knew that the undervalued Randy Moss was still available. (Let's not forget that Moss was coming off a disappointig 553-yard, 3-TD season--placing him under the radar in many drafts.) Since I was picking my team 3 turns later, I could have drafted someone else for Eric, hoping that Moss would be available when it was my team's turn.

But I felt obligated to be a Good Samaritan, and so I drafted Moss for Eric's team. There were some "ooooooh's" from the other league owners in the room, as they had forgotten all about Moss. It's quite possible that, had Eric been present, Moss would have fallen into my lap later that round.

And so it was bitterly ironic yesterday to lose 86-81 to Eric . . . to lose to a team that I assembled--a team that included (statistically):

• The #1 WR (Randy Moss)


• The #1 TE (Jason Witten)


• The #1 Defense (The Patriots)

Even with Witten on a bye, the QB I picked for Eric (Drew Brees) more than compensated for the TE's absence by tossing 4 TDs.

As with all parables, there's a lesson to be learned:

Don't stretch your allegiances beyond your investments.

Whether you're drafting a team or picking players off waivers, don't compromise your capabilities. Don't let your opponents benefit from your research. Softcore attitudes don't lead to championships. Hardcore attitudes do. Damn right.

So the next time your friend has to leave town or play with their baby or show some other blatant diregard for all that is holy in Fantasy Land, do yourself a favor: Turn the other cheek.

Now that's an attitude even Jesus would endorse.

This Day in Fantasy Sports History: October 28

October 28, 1962:

The New York Giants' Y.A. Tittle passes for 505 yards and 7 touchdowns, leading accountant Jimmy Sampson's "Kennedy Sensations" to a 105-97 victory over typist Julia Fontaine's "Lawrence Welkathons."

The loss dropped Ms. Fontaine's record to 2-and-6, prompting her to mail a first-class letter to her league's commissioner announcing that this would be her final season.

Week 8 Hardcore Picks -- Back to the Basics

I received an e-mail today from David M. who's playing in 3 leagues--or at least 3 that he admitted. There could be more.

He posed the age-old fantasy question, "I have 'x' number of players and have to sit 2 of them. Which ones should I bench?"

As I wrote this past Tuesday, the first step toward returning to basics is understanding your league's scoring system. If you're choosing between a running back and an equally skilled wide receiver for a "flex" spot on your active roster, which position tends to produce more fantasy points in your league? Look at your league's total scoring leaders: If 10 of the top 30 are RBs and only 3 are a WRs, then that might give you guidance on how to pick your flex spot.

On top of that, how tough is the defense they're facing? Apply my #2 hardcore strategy every time, and you'll automatically have an edge on your opponent.

Finally, are they motivated? I've told the story about LaMont Jordan two years ago telling the media that he was sick of not getting enough carries. Since the Raiders were losing, something had to change within the team's system. Jordan was the logical choice. So I picked him up, and he scored 3 TDs in his next game. The same applied earlier this year, when I picked up Jordan off waivers before Week 1, believing that he'd be motivated to play 110% for the 4 weeks Dominic Rhodes was out, so that he'd keep the starting job. Look up his stats during those first 4 games (552 total yards, 2 TDs), and you'll see how his motivation paid off for fantasy owners--as well as how back problems and ascension to clear-cut #1 RB have shut him down the past two games.

The following picks, as always, feature players who many teams have either reserved or dropped. None are among the top 10 at their position. But it's time to get them into your line-up:

QB -- Marc Bulger: I drafted him in the 4th round last year in my 14-team head-to-head league, and he helped me win the championship. This year he's been a colossal joke, much like Godzilla, who I recently discovered isn't real. But Bulger is real, and he's hungry. Although his offensive line is battered, for the first time in ages he'll have Steven Jackson back on the field. As you may recall from last season, Bulger utilized Jackson as a receiver to complement Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. At 0-7, expect the Rams to finally play like they did in '06, and to run up the score against the Browns--one of the worst defenses in the league.

RB -- DeShawn Wynn: You won't ever catch me hedging my bets on this site. A hardcore player makes the smartest pick he/she can and lets it ride, knowing that they did everything they could to pick the right player. Sure, there are better players than Wynn on this site, but he's the most undervalued running back in Week 8. Wynn has inherited the starting job . . . for now. As he said earlier this week, "It's definitely something I can't get complacent with." Vernand Morency and Brandon Jackson are among those waiting in the wings to take the starting job back. Facing a Broncos team that is ranked dead last in rushing defense, combined with a home game on Monday night, makes Wynn a very hardcore play.

WR -- Jerricho Cotchery: When your quarterback is playing for his job, and when you're playing the 3rd worst pass defense, you expect to get some catches. When your name is Jerricho Cotchery, it adds up to a lot of yards. Cotchery is known for making big plays. Is he risky some weeks? Sure. But playing at home in a rivalry game makes him a fantastic option.

TE -- Greg Olsen is slowly becoming a fixture in the Bears offense, especially with Brian Griese at the helm. Coming into a Week 8 match-up against the rival Lions, the Bears are amazingly a game-and-a-half behind Detroit in the NFC North. But they will not allow the Lions to beat them at home--not this game, at least. Griese's leadership and skills are finally paying dividends, and Olsen has been one of the beneficiaries. The fact that the Lions own the 2nd-worst pass defense makes Olsen an under-the-radar hardcore pick.

Defense -- The Buccaneers: I'm putting my money where my mouth is, as I picked up the Bucs off waivers earlier this week to replace my bye-week Ravens. Actually, I picked up the Jaguars first, but then some guy made the softcore mistake of dropping the Bucs, so I made the switch. Why Tampa Bay, which is only the 14th best defense in my head-to-head league? First, don't underestimate the advantage of playing at home. Second, the Jaguars are playing their 2nd-stringer QB, who played like he'd just been plucked from a flag football league. Finally, Maurice Jones-Drew is gimpy; even if he plays, it will be difficult for them to move the ball against the Buccaneers.

Good luck this week. But if you're operating like a hardcore player, you probably won't need it. Do your homework, make smart picks, and let reality take its course.

Questions for Fantasy B.J.

NOTE TO READERS: Due to enormous increased volume on this site, I've received more hardcore fantasy questions than ever before. Please be patient: I plan to respond to each one by no later than 3:00pm this Saturday.

Then I'm heading out for the evening.

The Friday Interview -- A Sit-down With Jo-Jo McSofty

If you're a frequent reader of Hardcore Fantasy Sports Blog, you know all about Jo-Jo McSofty. Let's fill in the newbies.

Jo-Jo is the type of fantasy sports player who makes softcore fantasy decisions, leading invariably to fantasy futility. Maybe there are several Jo-Jo's in your league. Maybe you're one of them. Shhhh, it's okay. We're here to help.

How do you know if you're a Jo-Jo? Read on.

I sat down with Jo-Jo this morning to learn more about what makes this Fantasy Non-Icon tick:

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-- What makes you tick, Jo-Jo? --

That's loaded question. There are so many things.

-- So name just one thing. --

One?

-- Yes, one. --

I'm kinda nervous.

-- Does this help? [NOTE TO READERS: At this point, I put my hand reassuringly on his shoulder] --

What were we talking about again?

-- Let's try a new question. What's your strategy for deciding which free agents to pick up? --

That's easy: I look at who did the best the previous game.

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Are sirens going off in your head? If not, then you're a Jo-Jo McSofty.

One of the biggest mistakes softcore players make is picking up a bad player who had one great game. If you're considering picking up a break-out player, do your homework first.

1. Why did that player suddenly rock? Was someone else injured? Did most of the stats come during end-of-game "garbage time" when the defense was slacking off?
2. What's the outlook for the coming week? Are they starting? How tough is the defense they're facing?
3. What's the local paper saying? Are they anticipating a trend, or do they sense things will return to normal next game?

After playing as a #3 WR last season for the Rams, 29-year-old Kevin Curtis--now with the Eagles--entered this season as a low-end filler in most fantasy leagues. His highest season yardage total was 801 yards; his second highest was 479 yards . . . certainly not a hot commodity by any stretch.

After two quiet games to start the season, Curtis broke out in Game 3 with 221 yards and 3 TDs. Such gawdy stats usually are reserved for All-Pros like Chad Johnson and Steve Smith. So what happened? All of the world's Jo-Jo's clamored to pick him up, believing that this half-decent wide receiver was suddenly a top commodity.

In the CBS Sportsline fantasy leagues, Curtis was started in 9% of leagues in Game 3. After his break-out performance, that number rose to 80% in Game 4. 80%.

And how did Curtis do the following week? A pathetic 21 yards with no scores.

Don't get me wrong: Curtis is more valuable this year than at any time in his career. He's proven in 2 out of 6 games that he can help your fantasy team. But he's not an every-week player.

So the next time a previously unheralded player has a break-out game, do your homework. One hardcore performance does not translate into a full season of hardcore performances. Separate the flukes from the gamers, and you'll be on your way to beating all the other Jo-Jo's in your league.

"Top Ten" Thursday

With apologies to David Letterman--and if this goes poorly, with deep apologies--each Thursday we'll bring you a Top Ten List on a topical fantasy football story. This week we're covering the Miami Dolphins, a once storied franchise that has descended to the depths of fantasy hell. In the last few weeks alone, the team has seen the loss of:

• #1 RB Ronnie Brown (to torn ACL)
• #1 WR Chris Chambers (to the Chargers)
• #1 QB Trent Green (to concussion)
• #1 Linebacker Zach Thomas (to car crash)

While bad teams certainly can have great fantasy players, the Dolphins are running out of options. They are dead last in defense, and they are without their only two legitimate offensive threats. Do we really expect Marty Booker and Derek Hagan to pick up the slack at wide-out? Can we imagine Cleo Lemon leading the Dolphins back from 21-point deficits (which will occur each game at arond the 8-minute mark of the 1st quarter)? Can anyone explain how new #1 RB Jesse Chatman will get any carries near the goal line, as the 'Fins struggle to avoid going 3-and-out on every possession?

And so, with 0-16 imminent, here it is . . .

The Top Ten Things The Dolphins Actually Could Be Good At:

10. Covering the spread

9. Watching television

8. Patting each other's asses after a well-deserved 1-yard run on 3rd and 8

7. Patting their opponents' asses when there's no ass left to pat

6. Making toast

5. Sending "thank you" notes to their 40 remaining fans

4. Getting hit by lightning (or some other freakish accident destined to befall this cursed team)

3. Eating Snickers bars

2. Farting

1. Instilling in their opponents a healthy sense of pride

2007 NFL -- Week 7 Recap -- Is Rob Bironas Relevant?

Time to open the mail bag once again. Here's a letter from weekly reader Rob Bironas of the Titans:

---

Dear Fantasy B.J.,

All season I've been annoyed as hell that you don't make hardcore predictions for field goal kickers. No punter picks? I can understand that. Punters are wusses. But I've worked very hard to become an NFL kicker, spending hours each day stretching my legs and watching others play football.

By last Sunday, I'd had just about enough of your negligence. So I kicked a record 8 field goals--not to win the game, but to prove you wrong. Kickers can make a differnce. From now on, you should treat us like football players, and not as the former-soccer-players-who-weren't-good-enough-to-go-pro that we are.

Sincerely,

Rob "Hardcore Now and Forever" Bironas

---

In my head-to-head league, waivers shut down 5 minutes before game time and don't open up until 5:30pm on Tuesday. We get to pick in reverse order of our record, so that the worst teams get the pick of the litter. And so I was struck dumb a little over an hour ago when 4 waiver pick-ups were wasted on kickers.

Whether you're drafting or playing the free agent market, know your league's scoring system. Which positions are worth more than others? In our league--as in most--kickers are the bottom of the barrel.

Here's how my league stacks up. Through 7 weeks, the top points at each position are:

• Kicker -- 66 points (Kris Brown)


• Defense -- 89 points (Patriots, Chiefs)


• Running Back -- 110 points (Ronnie Brown)


• Tight End -- 118.5 points (Jason Witten)


• Wide Receiver -- 142 points (Randy Moss)


• Quarterback -- 205 points (Tom Brady)

There are 13 QBs better than the best kicker. 18 WRs. 12 Defenses. And so on. Predicting weekly kicker performances is almost as futile as wasting a high waiver pick on one. How many times have I read some fantasy pundit say, "Pick Kicker A because he's playing against an easy defense."? It just doesn't work that way.

Do what I do, especially if you don't have a spare player to drop: Cut your kicker and pick up an extra offensive player. Then scan the news in the days leading up to game-time. Right before the cut-off, drop your least important player and snag a kicker who's connected on a fairly high percentage (80% should be the target). I follow this strategy nearly every week. Today it led to my picking up Lee Evans, who appears to ready to resume his place among the wide receiver elite--or at least put up a respectable 70-90 yards a game.

Whatever you do, understand how your league scoring works. Only then can you capitalize on each pick you make.

As for Week 7, Patrick Crayton had a shockingly anemic performance, while Vernon Davis and the Saints defense were adequate at best. But Drew Brees came through with his 2nd best performance of the year. And as pointed out yesterday, Kenny Watson finished #1 at his position.

Remember, do your homework. Only then can you earn your hardcore degree.

This kid is a master fantasy athlete. Get to know him. Get to know his books.

The Parable of the Good Samaritan Running Back

A certain running back went down from head to turf, and fell among linebackers, who stripped him of his ball, and wounded him, and returned to their huddle, leaving him out 6-8 weeks. And by chance there came down that way a certain back-up running back; and when he saw the wounded 1st stringer, he passed by on the other side, joined his huddle, and proceeded to rush for 60 yards on 9 carries.

---

One fantasy owner's blessing is another's curse. In a season when players are dropping left and right, crushing the hopes of people who thought they drafted great teams, hardcore owners are laughing all the way to the win column.

Why? Because hardcore owners know what it takes to win. They live by the motto:

Winning fantasy sports is 50% draft, 50% free agent pick-ups, and 50% luck.

Oh, hello math wizards who just wrote in: "But Fantasy BJ! Fantasy BJ! How can anything add up to 150%? Aren't you an idiot?"

No, my softcore math angels. I am an opportunist. And if you think you can get away with having only a great draft or only good luck, then you are doomed to fail far more than you think.

When Rudi Johnson went down, most people who had him on their roster were crushed. But rather than do something about it, they merely complained: "This isn't fair. All my best players are getting hurt. Wait 'til next year . . . I'll prove I'm the best fantasy player." Our softcore friend Jo-Jo McSofty would be proud.

However, a few people viewed Rudi Johnson not as a fantasy villain, but a true Good Samaritan, bringing joy to all those seeking another adequate running back. In this case, the beneficiary was Kenny Watson.

He was available in my league as late as last Friday, when I picked him up once Rudi Johnson's injury condition fell to Doubtful. The fact that the Bengals played the anemic Jets this Sunday--augmented by the fact that the Bengals were in a must-win situation--meant that Watson was in for a big game. He was one of my 5 hardcore picks this week, and he lived up to the expectation:

157 total yards. 3 touchdowns.

Barring a surprise Monday night, he will finish the week as the #1 performer at his position. Some of you might have followed the advice of CBS Sportsline, which picked him as the 26th best running back for the week. Maybe you'll think twice before listening to CBS Sportsline, which tends to place the same top 10 players within their top 10, regardless of current realities.

For those of you looking to improve your teams, commit to memory the Parable of the Good Samaritan Running Back. It's played out again and again, week after week. One player's injury is another player's bust-out performance. Pick the correct replacement to add to your team each week, and you'll win. Simple? No. But that's why I'm here.

2007 NFL -- Week 7 Hardcore Picks

It turns out Kurt Warner is a daily reader of this blog, as he wrote a follow-up letter in response to my posting of his first letter:

----------------

Dear Fantasy B.J.,

You are an ass. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. There's no need to cuss. But what gives you the right to print my last letter, which was written when I was at my most vulnerable? As a result of your callousness, I have decided to screw you (sorry, sorry, bad word) again this week by planning to play. Now you don't know what to do. Should you label me as a hardcore pick? If you do, I won't play. Should you ignore me? If you do, I will play and dominate.

Your move, punk-ass (sorry, sorry),

Kurt

----------------

We all get screwed by players who play when they shouldn't and who don't play when they should. Hardcore fantasy players operate on two tracks. The first is a long-term track, holding onto--or trading for--great players who are severely underperforming. Now if they're underperforming because of injury, that should be a red flag. But if you have Drew Brees or Lee Evans, when fantasy playoffs hit, you might have two fantasy studs who can help you bring home the championship, as it's only a matter of time before such great players return to greatness.

The second approach is a short-term track. In any given week, you might have 1 or 2 players who need to be upgraded. Remember what I wrote in one of my first blogs, and which is one of the primary tenets of the hardcore approach:

Don't expect to win if you keep playing the same line-up.

Mediocre players rarely have two great games in a row. Examine their opponent for the upcoming week, as well as what people are saying about them in the local newspaper. There are always going to be weeks when mediocre players dominate. Do your homework, and you'll make your week-to-week line-ups as good as they can be . . . without sacrificing your long-term goal of having the best overall team come playoff time.

Here are your Week 7 hardcore picks, which are no longer dedicated to Chris Harris from ESPN, who apparently doesn't read this blog nearly as much as Kurt Warner:

QB -- Drew Brees: As mentioned earlier, he is the proto-typical underperformer this season. In fact, now is a good time to trade for Brees; you can probably get him for cheap, as there are about 15-20 QBs playing better than him. But you should remember that last year was no fluke; Brees has proven year after year that he is an upper-tier QB. Last week things finally started to gel for the Saints. Expect continued improvements this week at home against a relatively weak Falcons defense.

RB -- Kenny Watson is as gutsy a pick as you'll read on this blog. As a side note, I strongly believe that Reggie Bush will continue to improve in his role as #1 RB on the Saints, displaying the playmaking abilities that made him legendary in his rookie year and in college. But Watson was available in my league as recently as yesterday, and I picked him up without hesitation after Rudi Johnson was downgraded to "doubtful." Watson has done a solid job filling in for Johnson in recent weeks. After an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs last week, the Bengals now face the Jets, who own one of the worst rush defenses. The Bengals will show no mercy, which means big points for Watson.

WR -- Patrick Crayton: Cowboys high-powered offense + avenging tough loss to Patriots + Vikings worst-rated pass defense + Crayton's important role in the Dallas offense = big numbers.

TE -- Vernon Davis: When he's hurt--which is often--he's useless. But don't forget that Davis was a 1st round pick who has a lot to prove. With Dilfer starting at QB, look for a lot of shorter and safer routes, which will benefit Davis. He's been dropped or benched in almost every league. Now is the time to restore your faith in this incredible physical specimen.

Defense -- The Saints: Desperate for a 1-week fill-in? You could do a lot worse than the resurging Saints, who are facing the Byron Leftwich-led Falcons. Leftwich looked as lost as a high schooler when he came into the game two weeks ago. Surrounded by a low-end receiving corps, the Saints D should keep Atlanta on their heels all game.

2007 NFL -- Week 6 Recap -- A Hardcore Trifecta

I received a letter today from Kurt Warner:

---

Dear Fanttasy [sic.] B.J.,

Sorry to have hurt my elbow after only a few plays this weekend. I realize you picked me as one of your Week 6 hardcore performers. I understand that you and your readers may have lost a lot of money as a result of my injury. I wish I could pay you, but I need that money to fix my elbow.

It's ironic that the elbow I hurt isn't even the elbow on my throwing arm; it's my other elbow. How strrange! [sic.]

It was reckless of me not to protect my elbow. I usually protect my elbow, such as when I eat, and I place my elbow in a protective purse.

Yours in perpetuity,

Kurt

---

Despite Warner's inability to play past the 5th minute of the game, never in the storied history of this Web site have 3 . . . 3 players come through as hardcore performers.

• As anticipated, Larry Johnson rebounded from his worst performance in years with a stellar game against a sub-par defense.

• Meanwhile, Bobby Engram took advantage of Deion Branch's injury to dominate against the Saints' cornerbacks.

• And let's not forget about the Eagles Defense, which prevented the pitiful Jets from getting into the end zone.

If you had played these 3 players last week, you would have been well on your way to winning.

So how do we spot next week's outperformers this early in the week? As I've said before, review the team's local newspapers, read the various online fantasy sites, and review the upcoming match-ups.

• Tampa Bay just landed another RB, Michael Bennett. Will he take carries from Earnest Graham? Keep on eye on what the Tampa Tribune is writing.

• Chris Chambers is a new Charger. What does this mean to his stock? To Vincent Jackson's? To Marty Booker and Ted Ginn on the Dolphins? Read the Miami Herald.

Don't think prayer alone will help. Do your homework, and you'll earn your hardcore degree.

2007 NFL -- Week 6

Last week I talked about one difference between hardcore and softcore fantasy players--that hardcore players understand the importance of scanning the Internet Sunday morning for last-minute injury reports and other helpful fantasy gossip. With so many great players remaining game-time decisions this Sunday, don't let Sunday morning pass you by.

I know what you're thinking: "But I'm out 'til 4am doin' my thang, and I'm lucky if I can even wake up by game-time." Well, Jo-Jo McSofty, sounds like you've gotta figure out what's important in your life. Extra sleep? It can wait? Baby to feed? It can wait. Yoga class to attend? Don't make me laugh.

In my 14-team head-to-head league, my strategy this week was to drop my kicker and two other inconsequential players and pick up three running backs: Earnest Graham, Kenny Watson, and Jason Wright. Watson and Wright are in for solid days if their teams' starters--Rudi Johnson and Jamal Lewis--can't play. With Johnson and Lewis in the "Questionable" injury camp, I plan to scour the Web before game-time to get the facts and make the necessary changes. And in the short-term, I prevent my opponents from landing these two semi-hot commodities.

Here are your Week 6 hardcore picks, which are dedicated to Chris Harris. My friend Justin met him at a wedding last weeknd. Chris makes fantasy predictions for ESPN, and therefore is the luckiest guy I almost know:

QB -- Kurt Warner: I'm not jumping on the bandwagon; I'm stating the obvious. With Matt Leinart on the IR, Warner has the rest of the season to re-stake his claim as a premier QB. An exaggeration? Not at all. Warner has been the quintessential team player since the Rams bumped him for Marc Bulger. He went from hero to cast-off far quicker than deserved. With one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL, with Boldin a strong possibility to return from injury, and facing a suspect Panthers pass defense, Warner is ready to explode, hardcore-style.

RB -- Larry Johnson has been very bad. Last week he carried 9 times for 12 yards--the icing on the proverbial crap cake. This week he's at home against a spotty Bengals D (150+ rushing yards yielded per game). He's also going to play angry, which is exactly where you want LJ: out to prove himself to his team and to the football community.

WR -- Bobby Engram: With Deion Branch injured, Engram is stepping into the #1 receiver role. Combine that with the Seahawks' god-awful performance last week against the Steelers, and the whole team is motivated to avenge themselves. The fact that the Saints are a mess makes Engram a hardcore solution if you've got a softcore WR who deserves to get yanked.

TE -- Randy McMichael: There are so many underperformers this season; it makes you wonder when they'll turn it around. McMichael is in a prime spot, despite the fact that his team is not. Facing a tough Ravens D, the Rams are without their 2 of their 4 main offensive weapons (Bulger and Jackson), while their other 2 (Holt and Bruce) are "questionable" on the injury list. McMichael will be relied on more than ever this week.

Defense -- The Eagles: This is the week the Eagles D bounces back. They're better than they've tended to play, while the Jets are worse. I generally don't prefer defenses that play on the road, but given the match-up, I can't resist. The Eagles are coming off a bye week, while the Jets are coming off an ugly loss to the Giants. Chad Pennington is questionable, making the Jets QB situation perilous at best. It all adds up to an Eagles romp.

2007 NFL -- Week 5 Recap -- A Hardcore Daily Double

As a hardcore fantasy player, I've been touring fantasy hot spots throughout the country to gain new insights, which I'm happy to pass on to you. For example, Nashville has a lot of buildings, while Atlanta has a lot more. This is good stuff people; write it down.

Actually, I was in Atlanta this weekend and watched Sunday's early games at a tex-mex sports bar called something-or-other . . . I can't remember. Anyway, my friend Chris and I got there around 12:15pm, which gave me a little time to check last minute news on his wireless laptop. The best fantasy info in the world comes between noon and 12:59pm Eastern Standard Time. The way to win your league is to pay attention to last-minute injury reports.

So at 12:45pm, I learned that Chris's tight end was injured. "Crap, who should I play?" he asked. Rather than belabor the point that he clearly hadn't read my last posting, I gave him two words: "Chris" and "Cooley." (ed. note: my friend's name is Chris, but he's not Chris Cooley, in case that was confusing to some of you).

So he quickly inserted Chris Cooley into his lineup, and about 45 minutes later, Cooley scored a TD.

It's just that simple, folks. Read this blog, and your likelihood of winning will improve. Talk with me face-to-face before the game, and you're gonna kick hardcore butt.

In Week 5 I gave you 2 hardies (Cooley, Eli Manning) and 3 softies (Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, 49ers Defense).

And it should be pointed out that Bush, Marshall, and the 49ers D each had solid games. Were they near the top at their position? No. But each exceeded their average stats to date.

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, and which I'll keep harping on, fantasy predictions aren't guesses. In their simplest form, they're based on this formula:

talent (plus) motivation (minus) opposing defense

There are surprise performers each week. Keep reading this blog to learn who the next ones will be.

2007 NFL -- Week 5

Another week, another group of injured players listed as "questionable." Is it frustrating? Yes. Should it provoke violence? No, though my friend Pete doesn't listen.

So what should you do if you have 1 or 2 starters listed as "questionable" this week?

1) If you have a deep bench, drop someone you'd never expect to play and pick up someone who will be good this week if the starter is ruled out. I'm talking about Kenton Keith (Joseph Addai's back-up) or Ladell Betts (Clinton Portis's back-up). Both of these back-ups are currently available in my 14-owner league--though with 8 starters and 2 bench players, we don't have much room to keep extra players.

2) So if you have a short bench, you'll have to decide whether this "questionable" player is one of those guys who guts it out no matter the injury. I've dealt with Kellen Winslow's questionable status most of the year, yet he's one of the 3 top TE's in the league. He's not leaving my starting line-up until he proves he's too hurt to play. Other guys--like the 30-some great players who are ailing right now--should be game-time decisions. What do I mean? Read on:

3) No matter what you do, you must check the Internet Sunday morning to learn your player's final pre-game status. In my league, our final line-ups must be set 5 minutes before game-time. Find the sites that work for you--there are hundreds out there--bookmark 'em, and add them to your Sunday morning routine. Between 11am and 1pm, the updates pour in, telling you who's starting and who's out. Interested in Kenton Keith? Pick him up, drop your mediocre kicker, and wait until 10 minutes before your line-up must be set. If Addai is ruled out, you've got yourself a hardcore replacement.

Here are your Week 5 hardcore picks:

QB -- Eli Manning: Even with #1 receiver Plaxico Burress questionable, the Giants have enough offensive weapons to put up big numbers agains a week Jets D. Manning has had to go up against 3 of the top 12 defenses this season. Manning is the #11 scorer among QB's in my CBS Sportsline league, but expect him to improve to #8 or higher when he faces his easiest match-up thus far.

RB -- Reggie Bush was picked in the 1st or 2nd round of most fantasy drafts this year. As a result, along with Drew Brees, he's been worse than softcore; he's been just plain soft. But after a bye week, and with their backs against the wall at 0-3, they have a golden opportunity to redeem themselves at home against the Panthers' bottom-10 defense. And with Deuce McAllister out for the season, look for Bush to carry more of the load and remind people why he's one of the most exciting players in the sport.

WR -- Brandon Marshall.is primed for a hardcore performance at home against a Chargers defense that's even worse than the Panthers' D. The Broncos' #1 receiver, Javon Walker, is out this week, giving Marshall sufficient motivation to prove that he can help lead this offense. And fortunately for Marshall--and not so for the Broncos--the team's running game is in chaos thanks to Travis Henry's drug bust. Cutler will do a lot of softcore throwing; thank goodness he's got a hardcore receiver who can make his QB look good.

TE -- Chris Cooley. Take this pick to the bank and cash it, hardcore style. Why? Do the math:

-- Redskins are at home

-- #1 receiver Santana Moss is doubtful

-- Detroit has a potent offense, which will force Jason Campbell to throw

-- Detroit's defense is 3rd worst in the league

-- Cooley has 2 TD's but is averaging only 18 yards a game--after averaging 45 a game each of the last two seasons

Picking players isn't guess work; mix the variables together, and you've got your answer.

Defense -- The 49ers were drafted in many leagues this year, but most owners have given up on them. After this week, many of those owners will express remorse. The Niners are at home and facing one of the most pathetic QB's in the league, Steve McNair. Am I being sacreligious? Shouldn't I be praising McNair for being such a gutsy and crafty veteran? After watching him play this season, it's clear that this will be his last season, and quite possibly will be the final start of his career. He's playing with the mental weakness of a rookie--something the Niners will exploit starting with McNair's first fumble after tripping over a tuft of dirt.

2007 NFL -- Week 4 Recap -- Introducing Jo-Jo McSofty and Dirk Hardy

In every fantasy league, there's a Jo-Jo McSofty and a Dirk Hardy:

• Jo-Jo McSofty makes all the wrong moves at all the wrong times. He sticks with bad players too long, picks up one-hit wonders a week too late, and makes excuses like, "If I'd had these players last week, I would've won this week . . . dag-nabit . . ."

• Dirk Hardy plays each week like it's a season, examining each of his players with objectivity and acumen, leading to the development of line-ups that (a) maximize the probability of winning that week, and (b) doesn't leave him vulnerable in future weeks.

Don't be a Jo-Jo. I can't tell you how many times just this season I've witnessed my competitors clamor to pick up journeymen who didn't know the meaning of having a "career day" before breaking through in one glorious game. Look at Chris Brown's performance Week 1, when he ran for more than 180 yards; the person who picked him up was sorely disappointed by Brown's pathetic Week 2 output. Or examine Kevin Curtis's Week 3, when he cracked 200 yards. It's not surprising he had a forgettable Week 4.

Even worse, Jo-Jo's tend to hang onto bad players way too long. Rather than improve their team from week to week, they expect Mr. Mediocre Quarterback to live up to the hype, rather than identifying how many better QB's remain on waivers.

After winning my 14-team head-to-head league last year, I've started this one 3-1. In typical Dirk Hardy fashion, I've just dropped LaMont Jordan. A free agent pick-up right before Week 1, Jordan outperformed nearly every other running backs in the first 4 weeks. A McSofty wouldn't dare drop him, fearing that others would perceive him to be "an idiot." But a Hardy cuts bait when reality hits. With a bye week upcoming, with Jordan questionable for Week 6, and with Dominic Rhodes returning from suspension, Jordan likely will never put up the same numbers for the rest of the season. With an eye toward assembling the best team for the playoffs, a Hardy won't hesitate to replace Jordan.

If you remember nothing else from this post, play fantasy as you would (or should) play the stock market:

• Don't get emotionally attached to your players.

• Find the best bargains.

• Hold on to your best players only if their anticipated rate of return cannot be matched by free agents. LaMont Jordan is a prime example. He's the penny stock that damn near turned the N.Y. Stock Exchange on its head. But at the end of the day, he's just a penny stock. Your future as an investor in great fantasy players lies elsewhere.

2007 NFL -- Week 4

It's Week 4, and if only I could pick Brady or Addai or any receiver named Johnson. But that's for other, simpler blogs that state the obvious and then pat themselves on the back. If you're like me or the owners in my league, you've got 1 or 2 star players, 1 or 2 underperforming stars, 1 or 2 injured stars, and a smattering of mediocrity (anyone have too many #3 receivers?).

It's time to upgrade your mediocrity.

Here are your Week 4 hardcore picks:

QB -- Trent Green: Before getting injured last year, Green was accustomed to throwing a lot for a lot of yards. This week he faces an underperforming Raiders defense that's giving up a lot of passing yards. And at 0-3, the Dolphins are seeking to overcome last week's devastating defeat to the Jets. Playing at home in what could be their last home game in front of cheering fans, expect Green and his receiving corps--including rejuvenated RB Ronnie Brown--to put up big numbers.

RB -- Cedric Benson is one of several underperforming Bears, leading some fans to question the decision to release Thomas Jones, and leading some fantasy fans to question Benson's hardcore credentials. After 3 weeks, he's one of the worst starting running backs in the league. All that will change this week against the Lions, as the Bears will utilize a more efficient and more conservative offense. This means a lot of carries and a lot of yards for Benson.

WR -- Lee Evans. When he was drafted in my league this year, everyone nodded in agreement; this guy was going to be a fantasy stud. But he's been playing like a retiree (no offense to the elderly, but most can't out-run cornerbacks). One area of concern is the Bills' QB situation: J.P. Losman is questionable, so back-up Trent Edwards might start. But after facing 3 premier defenses (the Broncos, Steelers, and Patriots), look for Buffalo's offense to get back on track against the poorly defensed Jets. And Evans will be a hardcore beneficiary.

TE -- Desmond Clark. Does anyone remember this guy from last year? He had some big games and finished the season with 6 TD's--near the top among tight ends. This year he's splitting time with rookie Greg Olsen. But this is the week to pick up and activate him. Why? With Brian Griese replacing Rex Grossman at QB, look for Griese to lead a more conservative passing attack, with dump-offs and 8-yard routes. Chicago is fighting to stay relevant in their division. Playing a weak defense like Detroit will only improve their--and Clark's--chance to succeed.

Defense -- The Chargers were one of the first defenses selected in this year's fantasy drafts. They also were among the first to get dumped. No longer a top 10 defense, and facing the anemic Chiefs, this once proud team is a perfect hardcore choice for Week 4.

2007 NFL -- Week 3 Recap -- Back in the Groove

In case you're joining us mid-season, this blog aims to help you find the "surprises" each week. I won't recommend top-10 players at any position, but when a lower-ranked player finishes a week in the top 10 at his position, that's what makes him "hardcore."

Last Friday, Wade C. from Nashville asked me whether to play Ronnie Brown or LenDale White. I told him Brown was due. How did I know? Because the Miami Herald had just run a story where two Hall-of-Fame Dolphins running backs (Mercury Morris and Jim Kiick) were questioning Coach Cameron's decision to rein in Brown. At 0-2, Cameron needed to make some changes, and the most obvious one would be to turn Brown loose. Sure enough, Brown tied for 1st among running backs this week.

In Week 3 I gave you 3 softies (Josh McCown, Antwaan Randle-El, and the Raiders Defense) and 2 hardies (Adrian Peterson and Vernon Davis).

• McCown was on pace to do some damage against the weak Browns defense, but his injury brought out my humble side.
• The Raiders Defense actually finished in the top 10 using SportingNews Fantasy scoring, which only counts "points against" when they come against your defense (and not on special teams, such as the Browns' kickoff return for a TD). But hardcore picks shouldn't have to be finessed, so I'm throwing this into the softcore camp.
• Antwaan Randle-El was relatively quiet on offense, though if you're in some leagues that count kickoff and punt returns, he would have given you decent production. Still, based on the most conservative scoring, he remain no more hardcore than my neighbor Patsy McSofty.

• Adrian Peterson finished this week firmly in the top 10 among running backs. I'll have to run the numbers, but I may not be able to recommend him next week, as he's now among the RB elites.
• Vernon Davis scratched the top 10 with his best output of the season. How did we know it would happen against the Steelers' stingy defense? Because he made his discontent known to the media. He's one of the 49ers' 3 franchise players, so he's going to be heard.

Fantasy predictions aren't guesses. In their simplest form, they're based on this formula:

talent (plus) motivation (minus) opposing defense

There are surprise winners every week. The only hard part is doing the research.

2007 NFL -- Week 3

Here are your Week 3 hardcore picks:

QB -- Josh McCown: How bad is he? More importantly, how bad is the defense of Cleveland--his opponent this coming Sunday? Cleveland has given up 79 points in the first two weeks, and has lived up to its expectation as one of the worst defenses in the league. McCown has a very strong receiving corps and has proven he can put up big numbers (Week 1 -- 313 yards). His coach also has said that this might be McCown's last start. Motivation + home field + terrible defense = hardcore pick.

RB -- Adrian Peterson has had a solid start to his pro career. Now he visits the hapless Chiefs, who have given up 100+ rushing hards in their first two games. With the Vikings' Tavaris Jackson all but inept at QB, look to Minnesota to rely on Peterson once again to carry the team.

WR -- Antwaan Randle El is going up against one of the other worst defenses (the Giants). He was lights out opening weekend. His quiet Week 2 should only serve to motivate him more this Sunday.

TE -- Vernon Davis is getting dumped by some owners. As I wrote in my last post, he also is speaking out publicly for Alex Smith to pass to him. His opponent this week, the Steelers, are a tough defense. But that doesn't mean the large and athletic Davis can't out-man whoever's defending him. Pick Davis up and activate him. He wants some hardcore action.

Defense -- The Raiders are viewed by many experts as having a decent defense--not one of the best, not one of the worst. They're playing a Cleveland team that put up 51 points last week; that's more than most Browns teams score in a month. All too predictably, teams that out-perform one week come back down to earth the next week. Look for Oakland to man-handle their over-achieving opponent.

2007 NFL -- Week 2 Recap -- R.I.P. Fantasy BJ?

What can be said about my abysmal Week 2 picks?

(1) The Saints are better than how they're playing. It would be shocking if they didn't finish with a winning record.

(2) The Bears offense is as bad as they've been playing. It would be shocking if Grossman finishes the season as the starter.

My Week 2 shortcomings raises a larger issue that I've heard from many of you:

When do you cut bait on a high-round draft pick who's underperforming?

The top 3 picks in many drafts were LaDainian Tomlinson, Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson. Tomlinson had an awful Week 2, Jackson has been mortal each of the first two weeks, and Johnson . . . In my friend Wade's league, one of the owners actually benched Johnson in Week 2. That's probably been his best decision of the year.

But these 2 fantasy stalwarts are not alone in their futility. Those who own Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and Marion Jones-Drew are wondering when it's time to cut bait. It's too late to "trade high" with these players. So what's an owner to do?

The answer is to do the following:

(1) Read the hometown newspaper of your underperforming star to find out what they're saying. For example, I read today how stud 2nd-year tight end Vernon Davis--who's been damn near invisible for the first two weeks--is mouthing off that he's open almost every play, and that his team needs to get him the ball. Sounds like something LaMont Jordan told the media two years ago--a few days before he ran for 3 TD's. So read up on the local angle so you can figure out the mindset of your players.

(2) Trust in the law of averages. When Chris Brown ran for 175 yards in Week 1, people rushed to pick him up. Had he been a fantasy stud in any of his past seasons? No. So why did people think someone splitting carries on a mediocre offensive team could keep that up? Sure enough, Brown totaled only 36 yards last week, ruining the weeks of many people who were counting on him to dominate once again. On the opposite end of the spectrum, proven players like Tomlinson and Brees will find their sea legs and finish the season with strong numbers.

(3) Float some of your underperforming stars as trade bait to your fellow owners, offering trades that would have seemed fair when the season started. For example, casually see if the guy who owns fast-starting Carson Palmer is willing to trade him for your Tomlinson or your Jackson. At this stage, the Palmer owner would say "Go to hell." But then ask again in 3 weeks, when Palmer levels out and your superstar has rebounded to top-tier status. It's a little gamesmanship, with the outcome keeping your fellow owners off-balance, wishing that they'd taken advantage of the trade when it was first offered, and hopefully luring them into making hasty trades or drop-adds when their players start to dip.

2007 NFL -- Week 2

I received two questions this week: One from Chris Hood from Atlanta, who asked whether to play Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes over Reggie Brown. The answer is yes. Although the Giants are facing a downgrade at QB and RB, which likely will adversely affect Burress, Brown hasn't proven himself to be a top-flight NFL wide receiver. That's not to say the Eagles won't slaughter the Redskins on Monday night--I think they will--but the passing will be spread out and the runs will be frequent.

Another hardcore player, Mike Ofner from near West Virginia, asked whether to play Chad Pennington or Matt Hasselbeck. With Pennington hobbled and traveling to Baltimore to face the rock-solid Ravens D, he'll be lucky to throw 1 TD. Hasselbeck is the safer pick. As a rule, lean toward players going up against teams who played the previous Monday night. The Bengals, Ravens, Cardinals, and 49ers have one less day to practice/rest. It's particularly tougher when they have to go on the road (that's why the Ravens, at home, are still a strong play against the Jets). Keep this in mind as the weeks go on.

For this coming week, I believe last year's two top NFC teams will avenge tough Week 1 losses. As a result, mid-level fantasy players on each team will rise to the top.

Here are your Week 2 hardcore picks:

QB -- Rex Grossman. That's right, Rex Grossman. The same Rex Grossman who has stunk it up for something like 9 of his past 10 games. My friend Wade thinks I'm crazy, for this and many other reasons. But remember, I'm not here to offer obvious picks. I'm here to find the surprises. So why Rex Grossman? The stars are aligned. As I mention below, the Chiefs are facing a crisis they haven't faced in years, or maybe ever: the prospect of being the worst team in the NFL. And the sad thing is, they're not good enough to be much better. Meanwhile, Grossman's days as a starter may be numbered in Chicago. Even Chargers linebackers coach Ron Rivera got into the act a few days ago, calling Grossman a "mental midget." This is the same Grossman who early last season displayed Pro Bowl form in several games, hitting short-range and long-range targets and making it look easy. This is as hardcore of a pick as you'll see. Look for Grossman to have a huge gut-check game.

RB -- Reggie Bush--speaking of gut-check games--was a huge disappointment in a very troubling loss last week versus the Colts. Don't expect a repeat performance against the Buccaneers. After terrible games, great players know how to rebound. Bush was projected to be the 16th best RB on CBSSportsline.com, so he certainly qualifies on this blog. It is doubtful that he will be anything less than stellar, thanks to the Saints' motivation to avenge their blow-out Week 1 loss, as well as their long rest between games.

WR -- Bernard Berrian is coming off a decent first game against a very tough Chargers D. Berrian also is in the last year of his contract, and is motivated to earn a huge long-term contract for the coming years. Add to that the chaos that is the Kansas City Chiefs, and the motivation of the Bears to return to Super Bowl form, and you've got the makings of a huge day.

TE -- Eric Johnson has been injury-prone throughout his career. But when he starts, he makes an impact. As stated above, the Saints will avenge last week's loss, and Johnson will pick up where he left off in Game 1. It's not unlikely that Brees will throw for more than 350 yards, with Johnson receiving a hardcore chunk of the action.

Defense -- The Saints, as stated earlier, are going to reverse their fortunes against the Bucs. There are many better plays this week, including the Bears and Ravens; but these are top-tier defenses which you should be playing every game regardless of the match-up. The Saints D is regarded as a middle-of-the-pack option, making them a risky play most weeks--but a hardcore pick for Week 2. The Bucs' starting RB is questionable, and frankly the whole Bucs offense is questionable from a quality perspective. Sports lore is filled with games where great teams beaten down in one game turn the tables in their next game. I'm not into picking scores on this blog, but don't be surprised if the Saints' victory is on par with the Colts' blow-out victory over them last week.

2007 NFL -- Week 1 Recap

Before discussing Week 2's hardcore picks, let's take a look at how we did in Week 1:

Lame Picks: Joe Horn (1 reception, 14 receiving yards). Horn was awful. I underestimated the Falcons' ability to score. I also didn't predict that QB Joey Harrington would find 8 other receivers during the game, severely compromising Horn's ability to distinguish himself from the pack.

Softcore Picks: Daniel Graham (3 receptions, 24 receiving yards), and the Redskins Defense (13 points against, 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery). Both picks finished outside the top ten at their respective positions, but neither would have hurt you too badly on your fantasy team, especially given their low values.

Hardcore Picks: For future reference, these encompass top 10 picks at their respective positions--the type of player who puts you on par or ahead of your fantasy competitors at that position. And since these players are "below the radar," they give you a surprising boost to your team. And that leads us to:

#1 Picks: I wasn't planning on going higher than "Hardcore," but this week was special. I don't expect this to happen again, especially because I'm not advising you on who's going to finish #1 at their position, but rather who will surprise you with a great week. But Tony Romo (345 passing yards, 11 rushing yards, 4 passing TD's, 1 rushing TD) and LaMont Jordan (70 yards rushing, 9 receptions, 89 yards receiving, 1 rushing TD) finished #1--or inarguably tied for #1--at their respective positions. Basically, if you played Romo and Jordan this week, you could have thrown in Horn, Graham, and the Redskins defense, and you probably would have beaten most competitors.

It's interesting that Romo and Jordan were playing at home (home crowd + motivation to avenge last season's disappointments), but Horn and Graham were on the road, and were playing with brand new teams. I don't think the outcomes were coincidental; it will take Horn and Graham time to get acclimated to these new systems.

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2007 NFL -- Week 1

It's time to get this thing started. Remember, if they're good enough to be in your line-up every day, I'm not going to mention them. Barring injury or suspension, guys like LaDainian Tomlinson, Peyton Manning, and the Ravens Defense should always be active on your team. You don't need me to remind you.

This blog is about giving you the hardcore edge to maximize your performance every week. This edge entails finding the players--either on your bench or on waivers--who will exceed all expectations in their next game.

A couple of themes for Week 1:

1. Home Field Advantage -- It's opening day for 16 home crowds. Home field advantage for these 16 teams, collectively, won't be this big for the rest of the season.
2. Motivation -- Most players have something to prove; a few players have a lot to prove.

Here are your Week 1 hardcore picks:

QB -- Tono Romo is projected to be the 11th best quarterback on CBS Sportsline, making him just barely unreliable enough to merit a mention on this blog. Playing against a weak Giants pass defense and looking to avenge a devastating playoff loss, Romo is primed for a big home game. Yes, the Cowboys have a good running game, but Eli Manning is equally motivated to prove that he can be a leader. It'll be a battle of the quarterbacks, with Romo getting the extra boost in front of his fans.

RB -- LaMont Jordan is playing against a terrible run defense. He's also been handed the starting job temporarily by the Raiders, thanks to Dominic Rhodes' brief suspension. Two years ago I read an article where an under-performing Jordan said he wasn't getting the ball enough. So I picked him up, and that Sunday he score 3 touchdowns. Today, Jordan is motivated to keep the starting job. Add to that the Raiders' motivation to prove to their home crowd that last year was an ugly fluke, and you've got the makings of a big game for Jordan.

WR -- Joe Horn is a tough call. He's playing on the road on a pretty bad team that's further beaten down by the Michael Vick situation. But the Vikings are one of the worst teams against the pass. And let's not forget that Horn was cast aside by the high-flying Saints in the off-season. A 2nd-year pro might get frustrated and underperform. But at 35 years old, Horn knows he still has a few years left. And in his first game, he'll do whatever he can to prove to the Saints--and to the rest of the league--that he's not far removed from his All-Pro form.

TE -- Daniel Graham is an under-rated Week 1 start. Sure, there are better TE's out there, but consider Graham the "best of the rest" for the season opener. Broncos QB Jay Cutler is still getting acclimated to the NFL. With #2 receiver Rod Smith out, Cutler will want to give Graham more looks. Assistant head coach Mike Heimerdinger recently said that his team needs to get the ball to Graham. All of this adds up to a hardcore choice for tight end.

K -- No freakin' way am I advising you on kickers. And be wary of anyone who gives you advice. Follow the most basic principle: Good kickers are good, and bad kickers are bad. Unless you're in a 20-team league, you'll find a good kicker. Spend the rest of your hard-earned time on positions with greater scoring impact.

Defense -- The Redskins are consistently ranked as one of the worst defenses, but expect a huge surprise in Week 1. They're motivated by their precarious situation: They're getting worse, not better; and if they don't turn it around, coaching icon Joe Gibbs might not be back in '08. Facing a Dolphins team whose offense has been below par for nearly a decade, this is the Redskins' chance to send their fans home happy. They won't disappoint, because they simply can't afford to disappoint.